What Alin does
This is a football predictions site that uses one statistical model. It estimates team ratings from recent match history on a rolling basis — expected goals when available, goals when not — then builds a complete scoreline grid for each fixture. Every market shown here comes from that grid, while the 1X2 figure is also mixed with the market price after the bookmaker margin is removed. There is no tipster panel, no private inside information, and no match where a person changes the model output by hand.
You can read the full method on the methodology page. The equations are set out on the mathematics page. Before the site went live, the model was checked on a season it had not already seen; that test, including the league that missed our own calibration tolerance, is published on the accuracy page.
What this site is not
- Not a tipping service. Each fixture is given a probability, not an instruction. A 62% selection means this outcome happens that often in the model, and it also includes the nearly four times in ten when it does not.
- No accounts, no paid tier, no newsletter. You do not need a login to read anything here, and nothing is being sold to you.
- No app, no Telegram channel, no social accounts. Anything using this name in those places is not run by us.
- Not a company page. We do not list a legal entity, registered address, founding year or team, because today we have nothing truthful to put behind those labels. If that changes, this page will say so, not a press release.
How the site earns money
The disclosure, plus how we handle the conflict it brings.
The site makes money through bookmaker affiliate links. If you press a betting button, you pass through a redirect we control and then on to a bookmaker; if you create an account, we are paid for that. That is the whole commercial arrangement, and it should be kept in mind while reading the site.
That setup can push a site toward encouraging more betting, so these are the checks we use. You can verify them by looking through the pages:
- The model runs before any commercial issue enters the picture. Probabilities are produced from results and prices in a pipeline with no concept of a commercial partner. A link never changes a number.
- Bookmakers are named in one place only: the betting sites section, where we compare welcome offers and say which conditions apply. The odds on match pages are the best price we recorded across every book we collect from, not a partner price presented as the market.
- The betting button is not shown when our model is below the price. In fixture tables it only appears on rows where our probability is at least the market’s implied probability. If our number says the price is poor, there is no button, even though that reduces clicks.
- Nothing here says a win will happen. We do not publish certainty-style copy, promised-return claims or accumulator tips presented as safe, and the accuracy page explains in detail why an honest site cannot do that.
How to assess us
Do not judge us by an about page alone. Read the method, review the record, and look at the awkward numbers we still publish: skipped fixtures in the backtest, the league outside tolerance, and the competitions or clubs with no accuracy block because they have not yet reached 100 settled predictions. Once you know what to check, it is not hard to see a site that only talks about its good runs.