Where the model disagrees with the market
40 of 267 fixtures — every row opens the full prediction.
| Match | League | Pick | Edge | Model | Market | Conf. | Best odds | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Union Berlin vs SV ElversbergBundesligaB | Bundesliga | SV ElversbergOur prob 39%Best odds 3.07 | +26% | 59% | 33% | B | 3.07 | Bet Now |
| Levante vs SevillaLa LigaA | La Liga | LevanteOur prob 40%Best odds 2.71 | +20% | 55% | 36% | A | 2.71 | Bet Now |
| Levante vs SevillaLa LigaA | La Liga | LevanteOur prob 41%Best odds 2.74 | +19% | 55% | 36% | A | 2.74 | Bet Now |
| Racing Santander vs ValenciaLa LigaA | La Liga | Racing SantanderOur prob 48%Best odds 2.30 | +19% | 62% | 43% | A | 2.30 | Bet Now |
| Crystal Palace vs Nottingham ForestPremier LeagueA | Premier League | Crystal PalaceOur prob 40%Best odds 2.74 | +18% | 54% | 36% | A | 2.74 | Bet Now |
| Elche vs Celta VigoLa LigaA | La Liga | ElcheOur prob 37%Best odds 2.93 | +10% | 44% | 34% | A | 2.93 | Bet Now |
| Lens vs LyonLigue 1A | Ligue 1 | LensOur prob 42%Best odds 2.46 | +10% | 49% | 40% | A | 2.46 | Bet Now |
| Ipswich vs FulhamPremier LeagueB | Premier League | IpswichOur prob 37%Best odds 2.79 | +9% | 44% | 35% | B | 2.79 | Bet Now |
| Aston Villa vs BrentfordPremier LeagueA | Premier League | Aston VillaOur prob 38%Best odds 2.73 | +9% | 44% | 36% | A | 2.73 | Bet Now |
| Como vs RomaSerie AA | Serie A | RomaOur prob 38%Best odds 2.69 | +9% | 45% | 36% | A | 2.69 | Bet Now |
| Cagliari vs JuventusSerie AA | Serie A | JuventusOur prob 63%Best odds 1.62 | +7% | 68% | 61% | A | 1.62 | Bet Now |
| Lorient vs Paris FCLigue 1A | Ligue 1 | Paris FCOur prob 43%Best odds 2.42 | +7% | 48% | 41% | A | 2.42 | Bet Now |
| Malaga vs EspanyolLa LigaA | La Liga | MalagaOur prob 36%Best odds 2.82 | +7% | 41% | 34% | A | 2.82 | Bet Now |
| Liverpool vs Manchester CityPremier LeagueA | Premier League | Manchester CityOur prob 39%Best odds 2.67 | +6% | 44% | 37% | A | 2.67 | Bet Now |
| Manchester United vs TottenhamPremier LeagueA | Premier League | Manchester UnitedOur prob 57%Best odds 1.76 | +6% | 61% | 56% | A | 1.76 | Bet Now |
| Malaga vs EspanyolLa LigaA | La Liga | MalagaOur prob 37%Best odds 2.80 | +6% | 41% | 35% | A | 2.80 | Bet Now |
| Brest vs AngersLigue 1A | Ligue 1 | BrestOur prob 49%Best odds 2.10 | +6% | 54% | 48% | A | 2.10 | Bet Now |
| FC Cologne vs Borussia M.GladbachBundesligaA | Bundesliga | FC CologneOur prob 49%Best odds 2.04 | +5% | 52% | 47% | A | 2.04 | Bet Now |
| Real Betis vs OsasunaLa LigaA | La Liga | Real BetisOur prob 60%Best odds 1.64 | +3% | 62% | 59% | A | 1.64 | Bet Now |
| Lecce vs BolognaSerie AA | Serie A | BolognaOur prob 49%Best odds 1.98 | +2% | 51% | 49% | A | 1.98 | Bet Now |
| Gençlerbirliği S.K. vs AmedSüper LigC | Süper Lig | AmedOur prob 45%Best odds 2.67 | +33% | 70% | 37% | C | 2.67 | Bet Now |
| Lusitânia Lourosa vs ChavesSegunda LigaC | Segunda Liga | Lusitânia LourosaOur prob 44%Best odds 2.64 | +32% | 68% | 36% | C | 2.64 | Bet Now |
| Real Oviedo vs EibarSegunda DivisiónC | Segunda División | EibarOur prob 36%Best odds 3.35 | +30% | 59% | 29% | C | 3.35 | Bet Now |
| Swansea vs NorwichEngland ChampionshipC | England Championship | SwanseaOur prob 45%Best odds 2.50 | +28% | 66% | 38% | C | 2.50 | Bet Now |
| Livyi Bereh vs Zorya LuhanskUkraine Premier LeagueC | Ukraine Premier League | Livyi BerehOur prob 38%Best odds 3.07 | +27% | 58% | 31% | C | 3.07 | Bet Now |
| Fagiano Okayama vs JEF United ChibaEmperor CupC | Emperor Cup | Fagiano OkayamaOur prob 59%Best odds 1.75 | +26% | 79% | 53% | C | 1.75 | Bet Now |
| FC Politehnica Timisoara vs CSA Steaua BucureştiLiga IIC | Liga II | FC Politehnica TimisoaraOur prob 62%Best odds 1.67 | +25% | 81% | 56% | C | 1.67 | Bet Now |
| Vicenza Virtus vs PisaItaly Serie BC | Italy Serie B | Vicenza VirtusOur prob 39%Best odds 3.02 | +25% | 57% | 32% | C | 3.02 | Bet Now |
| Darmstadt vs Energie Cottbus2. BundesligaC | 2. Bundesliga | Energie CottbusOur prob 39%Best odds 3.05 | +23% | 56% | 33% | C | 3.05 | Bet Now |
| Fredrikstad vs TromsoEliteserienC | Eliteserien | FredrikstadOur prob 39%Best odds 2.90 | +23% | 56% | 33% | C | 2.90 | Bet Now |
| Jong Ajax vs VVV VenloEerste DivisieC | Eerste Divisie | VVV VenloOur prob 49%Best odds 2.20 | +22% | 65% | 43% | C | 2.20 | Bet Now |
| Charleston Battery vs Louisville CityUSL ChampionshipC | USL Championship | Charleston BatteryOur prob 51%Best odds 2.13 | +22% | 67% | 46% | C | 2.13 | Bet Now |
| Mladost Lucani vs OFK BeogradSerbia Super LigaC | Serbia Super Liga | Mladost LucaniOur prob 41%Best odds 2.66 | +21% | 57% | 36% | C | 2.66 | Bet Now |
| Academico Viseu vs EstorilPrimeira LigaC | Primeira Liga | Academico ViseuOur prob 47%Best odds 2.32 | +21% | 62% | 41% | C | 2.32 | Bet Now |
| Guayaquil City FC vs EmelecLiga ProC | Liga Pro | Guayaquil City FCOur prob 39%Best odds 2.72 | +21% | 55% | 34% | C | 2.72 | Bet Now |
| KFUM Oslo vs ValerengaEliteserienC | Eliteserien | KFUM OsloOur prob 39%Best odds 2.82 | +19% | 53% | 34% | C | 2.82 | Bet Now |
| Piast Gliwice vs Widzew ŁódźEkstraklasaC | Ekstraklasa | Piast GliwiceOur prob 40%Best odds 2.69 | +19% | 55% | 36% | C | 2.69 | Bet Now |
| Cobresal vs Universidad de ConcepcionChile Primera DivisiónC | Chile Primera División | CobresalOur prob 48%Best odds 2.17 | +19% | 63% | 44% | C | 2.17 | Bet Now |
| Burgos vs GranadaSegunda DivisiónC | Segunda División | BurgosOur prob 44%Best odds 2.49 | +19% | 58% | 39% | C | 2.49 | Bet Now |
| Podbrezová vs Spartak TrnavaSlovakia Super LigaC | Slovakia Super Liga | Spartak TrnavaOur prob 41%Best odds 2.69 | +19% | 55% | 36% | C | 2.69 | Bet Now |
Our prob = the probability we publish for that pick — the model blended with the de-vigged market price where one is recorded; the Model and Market columns are the two inputs behind it. Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability; grade A/B = the pick is backed by both/one team's xG record. Best odds = the top bookmaker price on our pick, taking each book at its own last update.
We only record bookmaker prices for the 1X2 market, so every row here is a 1X2 selection — an edge on any other market would be invented rather than measured. xG-backed picks (grade A or B) rank first, then by edge — so a grade C row can sit below smaller edges, because a number the model produced without an xG record behind either club is a weaker claim than the same number with one, and this page lists the top 40 of 267. Prices older than 24 hours are dropped rather than shown stale; the newest snapshot behind this page was taken at 18:12 UTC on 6 October 2026.
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What an edge is, and what it is not
Edge is the gap between two numbers we both publish: our model’s probability for a selection, and the same probability implied by the best recorded price once the bookmaker’s margin is stripped out. A 2-point gap is the smallest we treat as signal rather than rounding.
An edge is a statement about price, not about the result. A pick with a large edge still loses most of the time when its probability is low — the claim is that the price is wrong, not that the outcome is certain. The grade next to each match says how much of that claim rests on expected goals: A means both clubs have an xG-backed record behind their rating, B one of them, C neither.