Where the model disagrees with the market
40 of 129 fixtures — every row opens the full prediction.
| Match | League | Pick | Edge | Ours | Market | Conf. | Best odds | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hamburger SV vs Eintracht FrankfurtDFB PokalA | DFB Pokal | Eintracht FrankfurtOur prob 52%Best odds 2.30 | +10% | 52% | 42% | A | 2.30 | Bet Now |
| Bournemouth vs LeedsPremier LeagueA | Premier League | BournemouthOur prob 53%Best odds 2.24 | +8% | 53% | 44% | A | 2.24 | Bet Now |
| Bochum vs Mainz 05DFB PokalB | DFB Pokal | Mainz 05Our prob 62%Best odds 1.73 | +6% | 62% | 56% | B | 1.73 | Bet Now |
| SC Paderborn 07 vs VfB StuttgartDFB PokalA | DFB Pokal | VfB StuttgartOur prob 66%Best odds 1.56 | +5% | 66% | 61% | A | 1.56 | Bet Now |
| Dynamo Dresden vs FC Schalke 04DFB PokalB | DFB Pokal | FC Schalke 04Our prob 51%Best odds 2.08 | +5% | 51% | 46% | B | 2.08 | Bet Now |
| SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach vs AugsburgDFB PokalB | DFB Pokal | AugsburgOur prob 76%Best odds 1.36 | +5% | 76% | 71% | B | 1.36 | Bet Now |
| Udinese vs RomaSerie AA | Serie A | RomaOur prob 62%Best odds 1.69 | +4% | 62% | 58% | A | 1.69 | Bet Now |
| Hull City vs IpswichPremier LeagueA | Premier League | Hull CityOur prob 40%Best odds 2.73 | +3% | 40% | 36% | A | 2.73 | Bet Now |
| Deportivo La Coruna vs OsasunaLa LigaA | La Liga | Deportivo La CorunaOur prob 47%Best odds 2.28 | +3% | 47% | 44% | A | 2.28 | Bet Now |
| Bournemouth vs Aston VillaLeague CupA | League Cup | BournemouthOur prob 45%Best odds 2.32 | +3% | 45% | 42% | A | 2.32 | Bet Now |
| Union Berlin vs FC CologneBundesligaA | Bundesliga | FC CologneOur prob 38%Best odds 2.73 | +2% | 38% | 36% | A | 2.73 | Bet Now |
| Villarreal vs EspanyolLa LigaA | La Liga | VillarrealOur prob 65%Best odds 1.57 | +2% | 65% | 63% | A | 1.57 | Bet Now |
| Kristiansund BK vs AalesundNM CupenC | NM Cupen | AalesundOur prob 46%Best odds 2.85 | +13% | 46% | 33% | C | 2.85 | Bet Now |
| Sarpsborg 08 FF vs ValerengaNM CupenC | NM Cupen | ValerengaOur prob 40%Best odds 3.05 | +9% | 40% | 31% | C | 3.05 | Bet Now |
| Hannover 96 vs 1. FC KaiserslauternDFB PokalC | DFB Pokal | 1. FC KaiserslauternOur prob 41%Best odds 3.10 | +9% | 41% | 32% | C | 3.10 | Bet Now |
| Ascoli vs SampdoriaItaly Serie BC | Italy Serie B | AscoliOur prob 51%Best odds 2.25 | +8% | 51% | 43% | C | 2.25 | Bet Now |
| Universitatea Cluj vs FCSBLiga IC | Liga I | Universitatea ClujOur prob 42%Best odds 2.63 | +7% | 42% | 35% | C | 2.63 | Bet Now |
| Al Ittihad vs El GeishEgypt Premier LeagueC | Egypt Premier League | Al IttihadOur prob 41%Best odds 2.90 | +7% | 41% | 34% | C | 2.90 | Bet Now |
| Al Taawon vs Al-EttifaqSaudi Arabia Pro LeagueC | Saudi Arabia Pro League | Al-EttifaqOur prob 38%Best odds 3.10 | +7% | 38% | 31% | C | 3.10 | Bet Now |
| Fagiano Okayama vs FC TokyoJ1 LeagueC | J1 League | FC TokyoOur prob 52%Best odds 2.09 | +7% | 52% | 46% | C | 2.09 | Bet Now |
| Darmstadt vs 1. FC Magdeburg2. BundesligaC | 2. Bundesliga | 1. FC MagdeburgOur prob 47%Best odds 2.37 | +6% | 47% | 40% | C | 2.37 | Bet Now |
| Cerro vs Central EspanolUruguay Primera DivisiónC | Uruguay Primera División | CerroOur prob 44%Best odds 2.48 | +6% | 44% | 38% | C | 2.48 | Bet Now |
| MVV vs VVV VenloEerste DivisieC | Eerste Divisie | VVV VenloOur prob 51%Best odds 2.07 | +6% | 51% | 45% | C | 2.07 | Bet Now |
| Arezzo vs AscoliItaly Serie BC | Italy Serie B | AscoliOur prob 42%Best odds 2.55 | +6% | 42% | 36% | C | 2.55 | Bet Now |
| Petrolul Ploiesti vs CFR 1907 ClujLiga IC | Liga I | Petrolul PloiestiOur prob 40%Best odds 2.75 | +6% | 40% | 34% | C | 2.75 | Bet Now |
| FC Volendam vs De GraafschapEerste DivisieC | Eerste Divisie | FC VolendamOur prob 52%Best odds 2.09 | +6% | 52% | 46% | C | 2.09 | Bet Now |
| Benevento vs CatanzaroItaly Serie BC | Italy Serie B | BeneventoOur prob 61%Best odds 1.73 | +6% | 61% | 55% | C | 1.73 | Bet Now |
| FK Košice vs Dunajska StredaSlovakia Super LigaC | Slovakia Super Liga | Dunajska StredaOur prob 53%Best odds 2.02 | +5% | 53% | 48% | C | 2.02 | Bet Now |
| Atletico Tucuman vs PlatenseCopa ArgentinaC | Copa Argentina | Atletico TucumanOur prob 37%Best odds 3.13 | +5% | 37% | 32% | C | 3.13 | Bet Now |
| Defensa Y Justicia vs IndependienteLiga Profesional ArgentinaC | Liga Profesional Argentina | Defensa Y JusticiaOur prob 47%Best odds 2.34 | +5% | 47% | 42% | C | 2.34 | Bet Now |
| U. Catolica vs Universidad de ChileChile Primera DivisiónC | Chile Primera División | Universidad de ChileOur prob 38%Best odds 2.92 | +5% | 38% | 33% | C | 2.92 | Bet Now |
| Valerenga vs TromsoEliteserienC | Eliteserien | ValerengaOur prob 43%Best odds 2.52 | +5% | 43% | 38% | C | 2.52 | Bet Now |
| Progreso vs Defensor SportingUruguay Primera DivisiónC | Uruguay Primera División | ProgresoOur prob 41%Best odds 2.70 | +5% | 41% | 36% | C | 2.70 | Bet Now |
| ST Johnstone vs MotherwellScotland PremiershipC | Scotland Premiership | ST JohnstoneOur prob 43%Best odds 2.59 | +5% | 43% | 38% | C | 2.59 | Bet Now |
| PAOK vs AEK Athens FCGreece CupC | Greece Cup | AEK Athens FCOur prob 36%Best odds 3.05 | +5% | 36% | 31% | C | 3.05 | Bet Now |
| Maritimo vs Santa ClaraPrimeira LigaC | Primeira Liga | Santa ClaraOur prob 44%Best odds 2.52 | +5% | 44% | 39% | C | 2.52 | Bet Now |
| Panathinaikos vs AEK Athens FCSuper League 1C | Super League 1 | PanathinaikosOur prob 44%Best odds 2.45 | +5% | 44% | 39% | C | 2.45 | Bet Now |
| Maccabi Haifa vs Hapoel Beer ShevaLigat Ha'alC | Ligat Ha'al | Maccabi HaifaOur prob 47%Best odds 2.38 | +5% | 47% | 42% | C | 2.38 | Bet Now |
| Academico Viseu vs Rio AvePrimeira LigaC | Primeira Liga | Academico ViseuOur prob 51%Best odds 2.12 | +5% | 51% | 46% | C | 2.12 | Bet Now |
| KFUM Oslo vs Ham-KamEliteserienC | Eliteserien | KFUM OsloOur prob 52%Best odds 2.01 | +5% | 52% | 48% | C | 2.01 | Bet Now |
Our prob = the probability we publish for that pick (the Ours column) — our model blended with the de-vigged market price where one is recorded; Market = that de-vigged market probability. Edge = Ours minus Market; grade A/B = the pick is backed by both/one team's xG record. Best odds = the top bookmaker price on our pick, taking each book at its own last update.
We only record bookmaker prices for the 1X2 market, so every row here is a 1X2 selection — an edge on any other market would be invented rather than measured. xG-backed picks (grade A or B) rank first, then by edge — so a grade C row can sit below smaller edges, because a number the model produced without an xG record behind either club is a weaker claim than the same number with one, and this page lists the top 40 of 129. Prices older than 24 hours are dropped rather than shown stale; the newest snapshot behind this page was taken at 16:10 UTC on 26 October 2026.
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
What an edge is, and what it is not
Edge is the gap between two numbers we both publish: our model’s probability for a selection, and the same probability implied by the best recorded price once the bookmaker’s margin is stripped out. A 2-point gap is the smallest we treat as signal rather than rounding.
An edge is a statement about price, not about the result. A pick with a large edge still loses most of the time when its probability is low — the claim is that the price is wrong, not that the outcome is certain. The grade next to each match says how much of that claim rests on expected goals: A means both clubs have an xG-backed record behind their rating, B one of them, C neither.