Updated

Italy · 2026/27 season

Serie A Football Predictions

Inter leads Serie A with 22 points after 80 matches in the 2026/27 season, which have averaged 3.01 goals per match. With 59% of matches going over 2.5 goals and 56% seeing both teams score, factors like team form and injuries could affect these outcomes.

Teams 20 in the 2026/27 season
Matches played 80 of 380 scheduled this season
Prediction pages 20 fixtures in our publication window
Fixtures predicted 109 so far this season

Upcoming Serie A fixtures

20 fixtures in our publication window — every row opens the full prediction; 40 more scheduled later this season.

Serie A fixtures in our publication window with our pick, edge and best market odds
MatchLeaguePickEdgeOursMarketConf.Best odds
Sassuolo vs LazioSerie AA Serie A LazioOur prob 43%Best odds 2.24 -2% 43% 45% A 2.24
Roma vs CagliariSerie AA Serie A RomaOur prob 70%Best odds 1.38 0% 70% 71% A 1.38
Torino vs ComoSerie AA Serie A ComoOur prob 53%Best odds 1.82 -1% 53% 54% A 1.82
AC Milan vs BolognaSerie AA Serie A AC MilanOur prob 56%Best odds 1.69 -2% 56% 58% A 1.69
Venezia vs InterSerie AA Serie A InterOur prob 68%Best odds 1.37 -2% 68% 71% A 1.37
Parma Calcio 1913 vs UdineseSerie AA Serie A UdineseOur prob 38%Best odds 2.56 -1% 38% 38% A 2.56
Genoa vs JuventusSerie AA Serie A JuventusOur prob 56%Best odds 1.75 0% 56% 56% A 1.75
Monza vs NapoliSerie AA Serie A NapoliOur prob 50%Best odds 1.82 -2% 50% 53% A 1.82
Frosinone vs LecceSerie AA Serie A FrosinoneOur prob 55%Best odds 1.92 -1% 55% 56% A 1.92
Fiorentina vs AtalantaSerie AA Serie A FiorentinaOur prob 42%Best odds 2.30 0% 42% 43% A 2.30
Bologna vs MonzaSerie AA Serie A BolognaOur prob 50%Best odds 1.81 -4% 50% 54% A 1.81
Udinese vs RomaSerie AA Serie A RomaOur prob 62%Best odds 1.69 +4% 62% 58% A 1.69
AC Milan vs InterSerie AA Serie A InterOur prob 44%Best odds 2.40 +2% 44% 42% A 2.40
Lazio vs CagliariSerie AA Serie A LazioOur prob 57%Best odds 1.66 -3% 57% 60% A 1.66
Sassuolo vs FiorentinaSerie AA Serie A SassuoloOur prob 37%Best odds 2.69 +1% 37% 37% A 2.69
Juventus vs NapoliSerie AA Serie A JuventusOur prob 51%Best odds 1.94 +1% 51% 50% A 1.94
Atalanta vs Parma Calcio 1913Serie AA Serie A AtalantaOur prob 65%Best odds 1.46 -2% 65% 67% A 1.46
Frosinone vs TorinoSerie AA Serie A FrosinoneOur prob 41%Best odds 2.30 -1% 41% 42% A 2.30
Lecce vs GenoaSerie AA Serie A GenoaOur prob 35%Best odds 2.75 0% 35% 35% A 2.75
Como vs VeneziaSerie AA Serie A ComoOur prob 71%Best odds 1.33 -2% 71% 73% A 1.33

Our prob = the probability we publish for that pick (the Ours column) — our model blended with the de-vigged market price where one is recorded; Market = that de-vigged market probability. Edge = Ours minus Market; grade A/B = the pick is backed by both/one team's xG record. Best odds = the top bookmaker price on our pick, taking each book at its own last update.

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Serie A table

2026/27 season · computed from played results — ranked by points, then goal difference, then goals scored. Form: last five, newest first.

Serie A table from played results
#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1 Inter 8 710 2310 +13 22
2 Lazio 8 710 165 +11 22
3 Roma 8 530 196 +13 18
4 AC Milan 8 530 167 +9 18
5 Como 8 521 147 +7 17
6 Frosinone 8 422 1713 +4 14
7 Juventus 8 422 118 +3 14
8 Torino 8 413 1311 +2 13
9 Cagliari 8 413 69 -3 13
10 Napoli 8 323 1310 +3 11
11 Atalanta 8 314 1415 -1 10
12 Lecce 8 305 914 -5 9
13 Bologna 8 224 810 -2 8
14 Sassuolo 8 224 1216 -4 8
15 Monza 8 215 1518 -3 7
16 Genoa 8 215 613 -7 7
17 Udinese 8 116 918 -9 4
18 Fiorentina 8 116 919 -10 4
19 Parma Calcio 1913 8 116 515 -10 4
20 Venezia 8 107 617 -11 3

P = played, GD = goal difference, Pts = points. Not an imported table: it is rebuilt from the results in our database, so it may lag the official one by a match.

Serie A trends

How Serie A matches actually ended in the 2026/27: 80 played matches. A record of results, not a forecast.

Home wins 48% 38 of 80 matches +9 pts vs 2025/26 (380)
Away wins 35% 28 of 80 matches 0 pts vs 2025/26 (380)
Over 2.5 goals 59% 47 of 80 matches +13 pts vs 2025/26 (380)
Both teams scored 56% 45 of 80 matches +11 pts vs 2025/26 (380)

Change is in percentage points against the 2025/26 season (380 played matches).

Top Serie A teams by model rating

The attack and defence rates our model feeds into every prediction, as of the last update. Net = attack − defence, in goals per match.

Inter
#1
Net rating
+0.96
Attack
2.25
Defence
1.29
Form NextVenezia (A) · 28 Oct
Juventus
#2
Net rating
+0.86
Attack
1.76
Defence
0.89
Form NextGenoa (A) · 28 Oct
Roma
#3
Net rating
+0.82
Attack
2.21
Defence
1.39
Form NextCagliari (H) · 27 Oct

Rates are decay-weighted over each team’s last 15 completed matches — xG where the window is xG-backed, goals otherwise — and shrunk towards the league average; a higher attack and a lower defence rate are better. Form: last five results, newest first.

Top scorers in Serie A

From the Serie A scoring charts this season — goals first, then assists. Not a full squad list.

  • Gustavo VarelaMonza 7 G 1 A
  • A. RaimondoFrosinone 7 G 0 A
  • N. KrstovićAtalanta 6 G 2 A
  • D. MalenRoma 6 G 1 A
  • M. ThuramInter 5 G 2 A
  • T. DouvikasComo 5 G 0 A
  • A. RabiotAC Milan 4 G 3 A
  • Lautaro MartínezInter 4 G 0 A

Recent Serie A results

Last 6 played — what we predicted and what happened.

Recent Serie A results with our pre-match pick
DateMatchOur pickOur probScorePick
Udinese vs AC MilanOur pick AC Milan · 52% AC Milan to win 52% 0–2 Correct
Lecce vs JuventusOur pick Juventus · 64% Juventus to win 64% 0–2 Correct
Atalanta vs FrosinoneOur pick Atalanta · 46% Atalanta to win 46% 4–4 Missed
Genoa vs VeneziaOur pick Genoa · 44% Genoa to win 44% 1–0 Correct
Inter vs FiorentinaOur pick Inter · 68% Inter to win 68% 2–1 Correct
Lazio vs Parma Calcio 1913Our pick Lazio · 63% Lazio to win 63% 2–1 Correct

Our pick = the 1X2 selection we published before kick-off, with the probability we gave it; Correct/Missed compares that pick with the final result.

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