1X2
Home win, draw or away win — the model’s headline call, and the only market we can price against bookmaker odds.
50% average probability of the selection we name
Explore 1X2Every market we publish
9 markets, all priced from one model: expected-goals team ratings turned into a full scoreline grid. Cards show the average probability of the selection we name — the number that actually differs between markets.
Over/Under
Will the match produce three goals or more? One line, 2.5, read off the scoreline grid.
63% average probability of the selection we name
Explore Over/UnderBTTS
Do both sides find the net? Summed from the same grid, so it always agrees with our 1X2 numbers.
60% average probability of the selection we name
Explore BTTSCorrect Score
The single likeliest final scoreline. The hardest mainstream market — even the top score rarely clears 15%.
13% average probability of the selection we name
Explore Correct ScoreDouble Chance
Two of the three 1X2 outcomes in one bet: an exact sum of our 1X2 probabilities.
78% average probability of the selection we name
Explore Double ChanceDraw
The draw on its own — the outcome casual money tends to skip. Same blended number as the 1X2 page.
26% average probability of the selection we name
Explore DrawGoals
How far up the totals ladder the model still makes the match odds-on: over 0.5, 1.5, 2.5 or 3.5 goals.
63% average probability of the selection we name
Explore GoalsAccumulator
Multiple selections in one bet. We do not price accumulators, and this page says so instead of guessing.
No fixture-level number: our model does not price this market.
Explore AccumulatorHandicap
A one-goal head start. We publish the model’s −1 line: the favourite has to win by two.
28% average probability of the selection we name
Explore HandicapWhat each market covers, and where its number comes from
Only four markets are stored predictions in their own right. The rest are exact derivations of those, so they cover the same fixtures — that is why this is a table and not a pie chart of “picks per market”.
| Market | Fixtures priced | Kicking off today | Where the number comes from |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2Stored model prediction, blended with the de-vigged market price. | 919 | 12 | Stored model prediction, blended with the de-vigged market price. |
| Over/UnderStored model prediction (2.5 line). No market price is blended in. | 919 | 12 | Stored model prediction (2.5 line). No market price is blended in. |
| BTTSStored model prediction. No market price is blended in. | 919 | 12 | Stored model prediction. No market price is blended in. |
| Correct ScoreStored model prediction — the scoreline grid’s top cells. | 919 | 12 | Stored model prediction — the scoreline grid’s top cells. |
| Double ChanceDerived: arithmetic on the stored 1X2 probabilities, not a separate forecast. | 919 | 12 | Derived: arithmetic on the stored 1X2 probabilities, not a separate forecast. |
| DrawDerived: arithmetic on the stored 1X2 probabilities, not a separate forecast. | 919 | 12 | Derived: arithmetic on the stored 1X2 probabilities, not a separate forecast. |
| GoalsDerived: recomputed from the same scoreline grid, anchored to the fixture’s model version. | 919 | 12 | Derived: recomputed from the same scoreline grid, anchored to the fixture’s model version. |
| AccumulatorNot priced by our model. | — | — | Not priced by our model. |
| HandicapDerived: recomputed from the same scoreline grid, anchored to the fixture’s model version. | 919 | 12 | Derived: recomputed from the same scoreline grid, anchored to the fixture’s model version. |
“Fixtures priced” counts the matches that have a published analysis page right now, so the number matches what each market page actually lists. Derived markets are not a second opinion: they are arithmetic on the same stored probabilities, which is why their coverage is identical to the market they come from.
Where the model disagrees with the market
Value means a model probability above the de-vigged bookmaker price. We only record bookmaker prices for 1X2, so these are 1X2 picks — not a ranking across the nine markets above, which would need prices we do not have.
- +20% Levante to win Levante vs Sevilla
- +19% Levante to win Levante vs Sevilla
- +19% Racing Santander to win Racing Santander vs Valencia
- +18% Crystal Palace to win Crystal Palace vs Nottingham Forest
- +10% Elche to win Elche vs Celta Vigo
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability; xG-backed picks first. The featured card shows the strongest pick that already has an analysis page, so a larger edge listed here may simply be waiting for its fixture to enter our publication window.