Upcoming Ligue 1 fixtures
9 fixtures in our publication window — every row opens the full prediction; 51 more scheduled later this season.
| Match | League | Pick | Edge | Ours | Market | Conf. | Best odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Le Havre vs Paris Saint GermainLigue 1A | Ligue 1 | Paris Saint GermainOur prob 72%Best odds 1.27 | -4% | 72% | 76% | A | 1.27 |
| Lille vs LensLigue 1A | Ligue 1 | LilleOur prob 39%Best odds 2.45 | -1% | 39% | 40% | A | 2.45 |
| Marseille vs ToulouseLigue 1A | Ligue 1 | MarseilleOur prob 45%Best odds 1.96 | -5% | 45% | 49% | A | 1.96 |
| Strasbourg vs AuxerreLigue 1A | Ligue 1 | StrasbourgOur prob 49%Best odds 1.87 | -3% | 49% | 52% | A | 1.87 |
| Paris FC vs MonacoLigue 1A | Ligue 1 | Paris FCOur prob 42%Best odds 2.38 | +1% | 42% | 42% | A | 2.38 |
| Nice vs RennesLigue 1A | Ligue 1 | RennesOur prob 40%Best odds 2.53 | +1% | 40% | 40% | A | 2.53 |
| Lyon vs AngersLigue 1B | Ligue 1 | LyonOur prob 66%Best odds 1.44 | -2% | 66% | 68% | B | 1.44 |
| Lorient vs BrestLigue 1A | Ligue 1 | LorientOur prob 38%Best odds 2.61 | 0% | 38% | 38% | A | 2.61 |
| Estac Troyes vs Le MansLigue 1A | Ligue 1 | Estac TroyesOur prob 43%Best odds 2.30 | +1% | 43% | 42% | A | 2.30 |
Our prob = the probability we publish for that pick (the Ours column) — our model blended with the de-vigged market price where one is recorded; Market = that de-vigged market probability. Edge = Ours minus Market; grade A/B = the pick is backed by both/one team's xG record. Best odds = the top bookmaker price on our pick, taking each book at its own last update.
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Ligue 1 table
2026/27 season · computed from played results — ranked by points, then goal difference, then goals scored. Form: last five, newest first.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Paris Saint Germain |
8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 16 | 9 | +7 | 17 | |
| 2 |  Rennes |
8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 18 | 14 | +4 | 16 | |
| 3 |  Lille |
8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 11 | 6 | +5 | 15 | |
| 4 |  Monaco |
8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 11 | 7 | +4 | 15 | |
| 5 |  Lyon |
8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 13 | 7 | +6 | 14 | |
| 6 |  Paris FC |
8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 13 | 9 | +4 | 14 | |
| 7 |  Lens |
8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 16 | 12 | +4 | 13 | |
| 8 |  Marseille |
8 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 18 | 13 | +5 | 12 | |
| 9 |  Lorient |
8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 6 | +1 | 12 | |
| 10 |  Nice |
8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 10 | -2 | 11 | |
| 11 |  Toulouse |
8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 12 | 11 | +1 | 10 | |
| 12 |  Auxerre |
8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 12 | 18 | -6 | 10 | |
| 13 |  Brest |
8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 14 | 12 | +2 | 9 | |
| 14 |  Angers |
8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 15 | -6 | 8 | |
| 15 |  Le Mans |
8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 11 | 16 | -5 | 7 | |
| 16 |  Strasbourg |
8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 12 | 18 | -6 | 7 | |
| 17 |  Estac Troyes |
8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 16 | -11 | 5 | |
| 18 |  Le Havre |
8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 8 | 15 | -7 | 2 |
P = played, GD = goal difference, Pts = points. Not an imported table: it is rebuilt from the results in our database, so it may lag the official one by a match.
Ligue 1 trends
How Ligue 1 matches actually ended in the 2026/27: 72 played matches. A record of results, not a forecast.
Change is in percentage points against the 2025/26 season (306 played matches).
Top Ligue 1 teams by model rating
The attack and defence rates our model feeds into every prediction, as of the last update. Net = attack − defence, in goals per match.
- Net rating
- +1.11
- Attack
- 2.31
- Defence
- 1.21
- Net rating
- +0.52
- Attack
- 1.69
- Defence
- 1.17
- Net rating
- +0.43
- Attack
- 1.63
- Defence
- 1.19
Rates are decay-weighted over each team’s last 15 completed matches — xG where the window is xG-backed, goals otherwise — and shrunk towards the league average; a higher attack and a lower defence rate are better. Form: last five results, newest first.
Top scorers in Ligue 1
From the Ligue 1 scoring charts this season — goals first, then assists. Not a full squad list.
-
E. LepaulRennes
7 G 0 A
-
L. SinayokoParis FC
6 G 4 A
-
A. GouiriMarseille
5 G 2 A
-
C. TengstedtToulouse
5 G 1 A
-
C. ArcherAuxerre
5 G 0 A
-
F. ThauvinLens
4 G 7 A
-
Ferran TorresParis Saint Germain
4 G 1 A
-
L. MafoutaLe Mans
4 G 1 A
Recent Ligue 1 results
Last 6 played — what we predicted and what happened.
| Date | Match | Our pick | Our prob | Score | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paris Saint Germain vs LyonOur pick Paris Saint Germain · 67% | Paris Saint Germain to win | 67% | 2–0 | Correct | |
| Auxerre vs Le MansOur pick Auxerre · 44% | Auxerre to win | 44% | 1–1 | Missed | |
| Rennes vs StrasbourgOur pick Rennes · 55% | Rennes to win | 55% | 3–0 | Correct | |
| Marseille vs Le HavreOur pick Marseille · 60% | Marseille to win | 60% | 4–3 | Correct | |
| Angers vs LorientOur pick Lorient · 40% | Lorient to win | 40% | 0–0 | Missed | |
| Monaco vs LilleOur pick Monaco · 51% | Monaco to win | 51% | 1–1 | Missed |
Our pick = the 1X2 selection we published before kick-off, with the probability we gave it; Correct/Missed compares that pick with the final result.