Upcoming Ligue 1 fixtures
9 fixtures in our publication window — every row opens the full prediction; 51 more scheduled later this season.
| Match | League | Pick | Edge | Model | Market | Conf. | Best odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lille vs Le HavreLigue 1A | Ligue 1 | LilleOur prob 62%Best odds 1.48 | -11% | 54% | 65% | A | 1.48 |
| Nice vs StrasbourgLigue 1A | Ligue 1 | NiceOur prob 41%Best odds 2.36 | -1% | 40% | 41% | A | 2.36 |
| Paris Saint Germain vs Le MansLigue 1B | Ligue 1 | Paris Saint GermainOur prob 80%Best odds 1.09 | -37% | 52% | 89% | B | 1.09 |
| Monaco vs ToulouseLigue 1A | Ligue 1 | MonacoOur prob 56%Best odds 1.68 | -11% | 48% | 59% | A | 1.68 |
| Rennes vs AuxerreLigue 1A | Ligue 1 | RennesOur prob 63%Best odds 1.48 | -14% | 52% | 66% | A | 1.48 |
| Lorient vs Paris FCLigue 1A | Ligue 1 | Paris FCOur prob 43%Best odds 2.42 | +7% | 48% | 41% | A | 2.42 |
| Brest vs AngersLigue 1A | Ligue 1 | BrestOur prob 49%Best odds 2.10 | +6% | 54% | 48% | A | 2.10 |
| Estac Troyes vs MarseilleLigue 1B | Ligue 1 | MarseilleOur prob 45%Best odds 1.92 | -23% | 28% | 51% | B | 1.92 |
| Lens vs LyonLigue 1A | Ligue 1 | LensOur prob 42%Best odds 2.46 | +10% | 49% | 40% | A | 2.46 |
Our prob = the probability we publish for that pick — the model blended with the de-vigged market price where one is recorded; the Model and Market columns are the two inputs behind it. Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability; grade A/B = the pick is backed by both/one team's xG record. Best odds = the top bookmaker price on our pick, taking each book at its own last update.
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Ligue 1 table
2026/27 season · computed from played results — ranked by points, then goal difference, then goals scored. Form: last five, newest first.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Monaco |
5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 3 | +5 | 13 | |
| 2 |  Lyon |
5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 10 | 2 | +8 | 11 | |
| 3 |  Paris FC |
5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 3 | +5 | 11 | |
| 4 |  Lille |
5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 4 | +4 | 10 | |
| 5 |  Rennes |
5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 7 | -1 | 10 | |
| 6 |  Paris Saint Germain |
5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 5 | +1 | 8 | |
| 7 |  Angers |
5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 5 | +1 | 7 | |
| 8 |  Strasbourg |
5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 10 | 0 | 7 | |
| 9 |  Le Mans |
5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 6 | |
| 10 |  Auxerre |
5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 12 | -5 | 6 | |
| 11 |  Brest |
5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 8 | -1 | 5 | |
| 12 |  Lorient |
5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 6 | -1 | 5 | |
| 13 |  Toulouse |
5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 9 | -2 | 5 | |
| 14 |  Nice |
5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 6 | -3 | 5 | |
| 15 |  Lens |
5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 4 | |
| 16 |  Estac Troyes |
5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 11 | -7 | 4 | |
| 17 |  Marseille |
5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 7 | 8 | -1 | 3 | |
| 18 |  Le Havre |
5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 7 | -3 | 2 |
P = played, GD = goal difference, Pts = points. Not an imported table: it is rebuilt from the results in our database, so it may lag the official one by a match.
Ligue 1 trends
How Ligue 1 matches actually ended in the 2026/27: 45 played matches. A record of results, not a forecast.
Change is in percentage points against the 2025/26 season (306 played matches).
Top Ligue 1 teams by model rating
The attack and defence rates our model feeds into every prediction, as of the last update. Net = attack − defence, in goals per match.
- Net rating
- +0.87
- Attack
- 2.25
- Defence
- 1.37
- Net rating
- +0.70
- Attack
- 2.17
- Defence
- 1.47
- Net rating
- +0.68
- Attack
- 1.77
- Defence
- 1.09
Rates are decay-weighted over each team’s last 15 completed matches — xG where the window is xG-backed, goals otherwise — and shrunk towards the league average; a higher attack and a lower defence rate are better. Form: last five results, newest first.
Top scorers in Ligue 1
From the Ligue 1 scoring charts this season — goals first, then assists. Not a full squad list.
-
L. SinayokoParis FC
4 G 1 A
-
A. GouiriMarseille
4 G 1 A
-
K. DoumbiaBrest
4 G 1 A
-
Paris Josua BrunnerMonaco
4 G 0 A
-
Ferran TorresParis Saint Germain
4 G 0 A
-
F. ThauvinLens
3 G 2 A
-
A. BourabaaLe Mans
3 G 2 A
-
E. NuamahLyon
3 G 1 A
Recent Ligue 1 results
Last 6 played — what we predicted and what happened.
| Date | Match | Our pick | Our prob | Score | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marseille vs Paris Saint GermainOur pick Paris Saint Germain · 63% | Paris Saint Germain to win | 63% | 1–2 | Correct | |
| Nice vs LilleOur pick Lille · 46% | Lille to win | 46% | 2–1 | Missed | |
| Auxerre vs BrestOur pick Brest · 42% | Brest to win | 42% | 2–1 | Missed | |
| Angers vs Estac TroyesOur pick Angers · 42% | Angers to win | 42% | 2–0 | Correct | |
| Lyon vs RennesOur pick Lyon · 45% | Lyon to win | 45% | 4–0 | Correct | |
| Toulouse vs Le HavreOur pick Toulouse · 55% | Toulouse to win | 55% | 3–2 | Correct |
Our pick = the 1X2 selection we published before kick-off, with the probability we gave it; Correct/Missed compares that pick with the final result.