Upcoming Bundesliga fixtures
9 fixtures in our publication window — every row opens the full prediction; 51 more scheduled later this season.
| Match | League | Pick | Edge | Model | Market | Conf. | Best odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Freiburg vs FC Schalke 04BundesligaB | Bundesliga | FreiburgOur prob 54%Best odds 1.71 | -14% | 44% | 58% | B | 1.71 |
| Mainz 05 vs Bayer LeverkusenBundesligaA | Bundesliga | Bayer LeverkusenOur prob 41%Best odds 2.31 | -5% | 38% | 43% | A | 2.31 |
| Borussia Dortmund vs Werder BremenBundesligaA | Bundesliga | Borussia DortmundOur prob 69%Best odds 1.41 | 0% | 69% | 69% | A | 1.41 |
| Hoffenheim vs Hamburger SVBundesligaA | Bundesliga | HoffenheimOur prob 64%Best odds 1.49 | -7% | 59% | 66% | A | 1.49 |
| Augsburg vs Bayern MunichBundesligaA | Bundesliga | Bayern MunichOur prob 75%Best odds 1.22 | -15% | 64% | 79% | A | 1.22 |
| RasenBallsport Leipzig vs Eintracht FrankfurtBundesligaA | Bundesliga | RasenBallsport LeipzigOur prob 57%Best odds 1.58 | -18% | 43% | 62% | A | 1.58 |
| Union Berlin vs SV ElversbergBundesligaB | Bundesliga | SV ElversbergOur prob 39%Best odds 3.07 | +26% | 59% | 33% | B | 3.07 |
| SC Paderborn 07 vs VfB StuttgartBundesligaB | Bundesliga | VfB StuttgartOur prob 53%Best odds 1.64 | -26% | 33% | 59% | B | 1.64 |
| FC Cologne vs Borussia M.GladbachBundesligaA | Bundesliga | FC CologneOur prob 49%Best odds 2.04 | +5% | 52% | 47% | A | 2.04 |
Our prob = the probability we publish for that pick — the model blended with the de-vigged market price where one is recorded; the Model and Market columns are the two inputs behind it. Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability; grade A/B = the pick is backed by both/one team's xG record. Best odds = the top bookmaker price on our pick, taking each book at its own last update.
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Bundesliga table
2026/27 season · computed from played results — ranked by points, then goal difference, then goals scored. Form: last five, newest first.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Borussia Dortmund |
4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 2 | +7 | 12 | |
| 2 |  Bayern Munich |
4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 14 | 2 | +12 | 10 | |
| 3 |  Freiburg |
4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 3 | +9 | 10 | |
| 4 |  Augsburg |
4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 6 | +5 | 7 | |
| 5 |  Bayer Leverkusen |
4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 5 | +5 | 7 | |
| 6 |  Mainz 05 |
4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 6 | +4 | 7 | |
| 7 |  SV Elversberg |
4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 7 | +1 | 7 | |
| 8 |  Werder Bremen |
4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 7 | |
| 9 |  RasenBallsport Leipzig |
4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 5 | +4 | 6 | |
| 10 |  Eintracht Frankfurt |
4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 10 | -1 | 5 | |
| 11 |  FC Schalke 04 |
4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 5 | |
| 12 |  SC Paderborn 07 |
4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 4 | |
| 13 |  FC Cologne |
4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 9 | -3 | 4 | |
| 14 |  Hoffenheim |
4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 10 | -3 | 3 | |
| 15 |  VfB Stuttgart |
4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 9 | -3 | 3 | |
| 16 |  Hamburger SV |
4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 13 | -11 | 3 | |
| 17 |  Union Berlin |
4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 17 | -13 | 1 | |
| 18 |  Borussia M.Gladbach |
4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 6 | 16 | -10 | 0 |
P = played, GD = goal difference, Pts = points. Not an imported table: it is rebuilt from the results in our database, so it may lag the official one by a match.
Bundesliga trends
How Bundesliga matches actually ended in the 2026/27: 36 played matches. A record of results, not a forecast.
Change is in percentage points against the 2025/26 season (306 played matches).
Top Bundesliga teams by model rating
The attack and defence rates our model feeds into every prediction, as of the last update. Net = attack − defence, in goals per match.
- Net rating
- +1.61
- Attack
- 2.86
- Defence
- 1.25
- Net rating
- +1.14
- Attack
- 2.36
- Defence
- 1.22
- Net rating
- +1.02
- Attack
- 2.34
- Defence
- 1.32
Rates are decay-weighted over each team’s last 15 completed matches — xG where the window is xG-backed, goals otherwise — and shrunk towards the league average; a higher attack and a lower defence rate are better. Form: last five results, newest first.
Top scorers in Bundesliga
From the Bundesliga scoring charts this season — goals first, then assists. Not a full squad list.
-
M. OliseBayern Munich
4 G 1 A
-
Y. EbnoutalibEintracht Frankfurt
4 G 1 A
-
P. SchickBayer Leverkusen
4 G 1 A
-
Y. SuzukiFreiburg
4 G 0 A
-
P. TietzMainz 05
4 G 0 A
-
I. MatanovićFreiburg
3 G 1 A
-
J. BurkardtEintracht Frankfurt
3 G 1 A
-
H. KaneBayern Munich
3 G 1 A
Recent Bundesliga results
Last 6 played — what we predicted and what happened.
| Date | Match | Our pick | Our prob | Score | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SC Paderborn 07 vs HoffenheimOur pick Hoffenheim · 52% | Hoffenheim to win | 52% | 3–1 | Missed | |
| FC Schalke 04 vs SV ElversbergOur pick FC Schalke 04 · 46% | FC Schalke 04 to win | 46% | 0–0 | Missed | |
| Bayer Leverkusen vs RasenBallsport LeipzigOur pick Bayer Leverkusen · 50% | Bayer Leverkusen to win | 50% | 2–0 | Correct | |
| VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia DortmundOur pick Borussia Dortmund · 41% | Borussia Dortmund to win | 41% | 0–1 | Correct | |
| Werder Bremen vs AugsburgOur pick Augsburg · 38% | Augsburg to win | 38% | 3–2 | Missed | |
| Borussia M.Gladbach vs Mainz 05Our pick Mainz 05 · 47% | Mainz 05 to win | 47% | 3–4 | Correct |
Our pick = the 1X2 selection we published before kick-off, with the probability we gave it; Correct/Missed compares that pick with the final result.