Upcoming Bundesliga fixtures
9 fixtures in our publication window — every row opens the full prediction; 51 more scheduled later this season.
| Match | League | Pick | Edge | Ours | Market | Conf. | Best odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SV Elversberg vs Mainz 05BundesligaA | Bundesliga | Mainz 05Our prob 47%Best odds 2.13 | +1% | 47% | 46% | A | 2.13 |
| Werder Bremen vs HoffenheimBundesligaA | Bundesliga | HoffenheimOur prob 44%Best odds 2.29 | +1% | 44% | 43% | A | 2.29 |
| Borussia M.Gladbach vs SC Paderborn 07BundesligaA | Bundesliga | Borussia M.GladbachOur prob 48%Best odds 1.96 | -2% | 48% | 50% | A | 1.96 |
| Bayer Leverkusen vs VfB StuttgartBundesligaA | Bundesliga | Bayer LeverkusenOur prob 54%Best odds 1.82 | +1% | 54% | 53% | A | 1.82 |
| Eintracht Frankfurt vs Hamburger SVBundesligaA | Bundesliga | Eintracht FrankfurtOur prob 56%Best odds 1.72 | 0% | 56% | 56% | A | 1.72 |
| Augsburg vs FreiburgBundesligaA | Bundesliga | FreiburgOur prob 41%Best odds 2.27 | -2% | 41% | 43% | A | 2.27 |
| FC Schalke 04 vs RasenBallsport LeipzigBundesligaA | Bundesliga | RasenBallsport LeipzigOur prob 47%Best odds 1.92 | -3% | 47% | 50% | A | 1.92 |
| Union Berlin vs FC CologneBundesligaA | Bundesliga | FC CologneOur prob 38%Best odds 2.73 | +2% | 38% | 36% | A | 2.73 |
| Bayern Munich vs Borussia DortmundBundesligaA | Bundesliga | Bayern MunichOur prob 65%Best odds 1.40 | -5% | 65% | 70% | A | 1.40 |
Our prob = the probability we publish for that pick (the Ours column) — our model blended with the de-vigged market price where one is recorded; Market = that de-vigged market probability. Edge = Ours minus Market; grade A/B = the pick is backed by both/one team's xG record. Best odds = the top bookmaker price on our pick, taking each book at its own last update.
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Bundesliga table
2026/27 season · computed from played results — ranked by points, then goal difference, then goals scored. Form: last five, newest first.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Bayern Munich |
7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 25 | 6 | +19 | 17 | |
| 2 |  Borussia Dortmund |
7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 12 | 4 | +8 | 17 | |
| 3 |  Freiburg |
7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 16 | 9 | +7 | 13 | |
| 4 |  Bayer Leverkusen |
7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 16 | 12 | +4 | 13 | |
| 5 |  RasenBallsport Leipzig |
7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 20 | 11 | +9 | 12 | |
| 6 |  Werder Bremen |
7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 15 | 14 | +1 | 12 | |
| 7 |  Mainz 05 |
7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 16 | 13 | +3 | 10 | |
| 8 |  SV Elversberg |
7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 12 | 15 | -3 | 10 | |
| 9 |  Augsburg |
7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 17 | 13 | +4 | 9 | |
| 10 |  Hoffenheim |
7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 14 | 14 | 0 | 9 | |
| 11 |  Hamburger SV |
7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 6 | 16 | -10 | 9 | |
| 12 |  FC Cologne |
7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 11 | -3 | 8 | |
| 13 |  SC Paderborn 07 |
7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 9 | -3 | 8 | |
| 14 |  Eintracht Frankfurt |
7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 17 | -7 | 8 | |
| 15 |  VfB Stuttgart |
7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 10 | 13 | -3 | 6 | |
| 16 |  FC Schalke 04 |
7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 7 | -3 | 6 | |
| 17 |  Union Berlin |
7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 18 | -12 | 6 | |
| 18 |  Borussia M.Gladbach |
7 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 11 | 22 | -11 | 3 |
P = played, GD = goal difference, Pts = points. Not an imported table: it is rebuilt from the results in our database, so it may lag the official one by a match.
Bundesliga trends
How Bundesliga matches actually ended in the 2026/27: 63 played matches. A record of results, not a forecast.
Change is in percentage points against the 2025/26 season (306 played matches).
Top Bundesliga teams by model rating
The attack and defence rates our model feeds into every prediction, as of the last update. Net = attack − defence, in goals per match.
- Net rating
- +1.61
- Attack
- 2.94
- Defence
- 1.33
- Net rating
- +0.81
- Attack
- 2.15
- Defence
- 1.34
- Net rating
- +0.80
- Attack
- 1.96
- Defence
- 1.15
Rates are decay-weighted over each team’s last 15 completed matches — xG where the window is xG-backed, goals otherwise — and shrunk towards the league average; a higher attack and a lower defence rate are better. Form: last five results, newest first.
Top scorers in Bundesliga
From the Bundesliga scoring charts this season — goals first, then assists. Not a full squad list.
-
N. FüllkrugWerder Bremen
8 G 0 A
-
M. OliseBayern Munich
6 G 3 A
-
P. SchickBayer Leverkusen
6 G 2 A
-
Y. EbnoutalibEintracht Frankfurt
5 G 1 A
-
P. TietzMainz 05
5 G 0 A
-
H. KaneBayern Munich
4 G 5 A
- L. DíazBayern Munich 4 G 1 A
-
C. NkunkuRasenBallsport Leipzig
4 G 1 A
Recent Bundesliga results
Last 6 played — what we predicted and what happened.
| Date | Match | Our pick | Our prob | Score | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Freiburg vs Bayern MunichOur pick Bayern Munich · 61% | Bayern Munich to win | 61% | 1–3 | Correct | |
| Hoffenheim vs Bayer LeverkusenOur pick Bayer Leverkusen · 45% | Bayer Leverkusen to win | 45% | 3–0 | Missed | |
| Borussia Dortmund vs Eintracht FrankfurtOur pick Borussia Dortmund · 63% | Borussia Dortmund to win | 63% | 1–0 | Correct | |
| FC Cologne vs FC Schalke 04Our pick FC Cologne · 44% | FC Cologne to win | 44% | 0–0 | Missed | |
| SC Paderborn 07 vs Hamburger SVOur pick SC Paderborn 07 · 44% | SC Paderborn 07 to win | 44% | 1–0 | Correct | |
| RasenBallsport Leipzig vs SV ElversbergOur pick RasenBallsport Leipzig · 58% | RasenBallsport Leipzig to win | 58% | 4–0 | Correct |
Our pick = the 1X2 selection we published before kick-off, with the probability we gave it; Correct/Missed compares that pick with the final result.