Market

Football Accumulator Predictions (Acca Tips)

An accumulator multiplies several selections into one bet — the odds multiply, and so does the risk. Four independent 60% picks land together only about 13% of the time.

We do not price accumulators

Our model prices one match at a time. Combining those probabilities honestly would mean modelling how one result depends on another — kick-off times, shared weather, the same manager resting the same players — and we do not model that. Multiplying numbers that were never built to be multiplied would produce a confident-looking figure with nothing behind it, so we publish none.

The arithmetic compounds against you fast. Even if the legs were independent — they are not — five selections we rate at 70% each come in together about 17% of the time, and a sixth leg drops that to roughly 12%. Every extra leg multiplies the price and divides the chance, which is why an accumulator is entertainment with a lottery shape rather than a way to turn an edge into money.

What we do publish, per fixture, is below. Build the legs yourself from the markets the model actually prices:

Every probability on this page is produced by our own model — expected-goals team ratings turned into a Dixon-Coles scoreline grid, blended with de-vigged market odds where we record them. How our model works →