Velež vs Borac Banja Luka preview
In the upcoming match between Velež and Borac Banja Luka, the 1X2 probabilities show Borac Banja Luka at 57%, compared to Velež at 17%. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, which occurs 12% of the time according to our model. Velež has struggled recently, with 0 wins in their last 5 matches, while Borac Banja Luka has a stronger form, winning 3 of their last 5.
The expected goals indicate Velež at 0.83 and Borac Banja Luka at 1.71, suggesting a low-scoring game. The probabilities for Over 2.5 goals sit at 46%, and both teams to score is at 47%. This means that while Borac Banja Luka is favored, any unexpected performance from Velež could change the outcome.
Velež vs Borac Banja Luka: model vs market
| Source | Velež | Draw | Borac Banja Luka |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 13% | 25% | 62% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 13% | 25% | 62% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.75 vs 0.70.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Velež and Borac Banja Luka expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.45
- Attack rating (Velež / Borac Banja Luka)
- 0.65 / 1.54
- Defence rating (Velež / Borac Banja Luka)
- 1.25 / 0.80
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Velež vs Borac Banja Luka score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Velež goals. Columns: Borac Banja Luka goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Velež vs Borac Banja Luka goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 43%
- No goals (0–0)
- 10%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Velež vs Borac Banja Luka
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Velež | 13% | 7.47 |
| Draw | 25% | 4.01 | |
| Borac Banja Luka | 62% | 1.62 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 44% | 2.25 |
| Under 2.5 | 56% | 1.80 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 43% | 2.34 |
| No | 57% | 1.74 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Velež or draw) | 38% | 2.61 |
| 12 (either side) | 75% | 1.33 | |
| X2 (draw or Borac Banja Luka) | 87% | 1.15 | |
| Handicap -1 | Borac Banja Luka win by 2+ | 36% | 2.76 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 25% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
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Velež and Borac Banja Luka recent form
Velež
1W 2D 3L
Borac Banja Luka
5W 0D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Velež at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-2-0
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 0.25
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 4
- They have won 2 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They average 1.3 goals per game at home against 0.4 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 8 matches.
Borac Banja Luka away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-1
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.75
- Goals against / match
- 1.50
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 4
- They have won 6 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 8 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Velež at home only, Borac Banja Luka away only.
Velež vs Borac Banja Luka head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Velež 0 · draws 3 · Borac Banja Luka 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-09 | Borac Banja Luka | 3-1 | Velež | Premijer Liga |
| 2026-04-18 | Borac Banja Luka | 2-2 | Velež | Premijer Liga |
| 2026-02-07 | Velež | 0-0 | Borac Banja Luka | Premijer Liga |
| 2025-10-19 | Borac Banja Luka | 1-0 | Velež | Premijer Liga |
| 2025-08-03 | Velež | 1-1 | Borac Banja Luka | Premijer Liga |
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
- Sloga Doboj vs Siroki Brijeg — team news & stats 2026-10-16
- BSK Banja Luka vs Zeljeznicar Sarajevo 2026-10-17
- Radnik Bijeljina vs FK Sarajevo — team news & stats 2026-10-17
- Čelik vs Zrinjski 2026-10-17
Before and after this match
- Velež, previous: Velež vs Siroki Brijeg prediction
- Borac Banja Luka, previous: Panathinaikos v Borac Banja Luka analysis
- Borac Banja Luka, next: Borac Banja Luka vs KuPS: odds and pick