Updated

CAF Champions League · 2nd Preliminary Round

Al Hilal Omdurman vs Sidama Bunna

· Al Hilal Stadium, Omdurman

Alin prediction Al Hilal Omdurman to win

Cmodel only, no market odds

Predicted score 1 – 0

18% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Al Hilal OmdurmanDrawSidama Bunna

Al Hilal Omdurman vs Sidama Bunna preview

Al Hilal Omdurman faces Sidama Bunna with a 44% chance of winning compared to Sidama's 21%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, which occurs 18% of the time according to our model. Al Hilal has an expected goals figure of 1.08, while Sidama's is lower at 0.66.

However, the match could see more action than expected. With only a 25% chance for Over 2.5 goals and 33% for both teams to score, the game might not deliver many goals. Al Hilal's recent form shows two wins and a loss in their last three matches, while Sidama has won once and drawn once. The confidence grade is C, indicating some uncertainty in the predictions.

Al Hilal Omdurman vs Sidama Bunna: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceAl Hilal OmdurmanDrawSidama Bunna
Model44%35%21%
Market———
Published44%35%21%
Edge———
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.08 vs 0.66.
  • Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Al Hilal Omdurman and Sidama Bunna expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.08Al Hilal Omdurman
0.66Sidama Bunna
Total expected goals
1.74
Attack rating (Al Hilal Omdurman / Sidama Bunna)
1.18 / 1.16
Defence rating (Al Hilal Omdurman / Sidama Bunna)
0.77 / 0.71

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Al Hilal Omdurman vs Sidama Bunna score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 18.9% 10.4% 3.8% 0.8% 0.2% 1 17.7% 13.8% 4.1% 0.9% 0.2% 2 10.2% 6.7% 2.2% 0.5% 0.1% 3 3.7% 2.4% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0% 4+ 1.2% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%

Rows: Al Hilal Omdurman goals. Columns: Sidama Bunna goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Al Hilal Omdurman vs Sidama Bunna goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 81%
Over 1.5 53%
Over 2.5 25%
Over 3.5 10%
Both teams to score
33%
No goals (0–0)
19%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Al Hilal Omdurman vs Sidama Bunna

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Al Hilal Omdurman44%2.28
Draw35%2.85
Sidama Bunna21%4.76
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.525%3.96
Under 2.575%1.34
Both teams to scoreYes33%3.02
No67%1.49
Double chance1X (Al Hilal Omdurman or draw)79%1.27
12 (either side)65%1.54
X2 (draw or Sidama Bunna)56%1.78
Handicap -1Al Hilal Omdurman win by 2+19%5.37
Push (exactly one goal)25%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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Al Hilal Omdurman and Sidama Bunna recent form

Al Hilal Omdurman 3W 1D 2L
Sidama Bunna 1W 1D 0L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Al Hilal Omdurman at home

Record (W-D-L)
1-0-0
Win rate
100%
Goals for / match
1.00
Goals against / match
0.00
Clean sheets
1 of 1

Sidama Bunna away

Record (W-D-L)
0-1-0
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
0.00
Goals against / match
0.00
Clean sheets
1 of 1

League matches this season before kick-off: Al Hilal Omdurman at home only, Sidama Bunna away only.

Other 2nd Preliminary Round fixtures

Before and after this match

Prediction snapshot Al Hilal Omdurman to win Predicted score 1 – 0 C Bet on Al Hilal Omdurman