Nouadhibou vs San-Pédro Prediction & Betting Tips 25/10/2026

Nouadhibou vs San-Pédro preview

In the CAF Champions League fixture, Nouadhibou has a 56% chance to win against San-Pédro, who has only a 17% chance. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, which has a 13% probability. Both teams to score stands at 45%, while Over 2.5 goals is at 44%.

Nouadhibou's expected goals are 1.63 compared to San-Pédro's 0.79, indicating a clear attacking advantage. However, the recent form shows Nouadhibou with three draws and two wins in their last five matches, while San-Pédro has not won in their last six games, with five losses. This could affect the outcome, as form can shift unexpectedly in football.

Nouadhibou vs San-Pédro: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Nouadhibou	Draw	San-Pédro
Model	56%	27%	17%
Market	—	—	—
Published	56%	27%	17%
Edge	—	—	—

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.63 vs 0.79.
Better recent form: 1 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Nouadhibou and San-Pédro expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.63Nouadhibou

0.79San-Pédro

Total expected goals: 2.42
Attack rating (Nouadhibou / San-Pédro): 0.80 / 1.30
Defence rating (Nouadhibou / San-Pédro): 0.83 / 1.60

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Nouadhibou vs San-Pédro score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 10.1% 5.9% 2.8% 0.7% 0.2% 1 13.3% 12.6% 4.6% 1.2% 0.3% 2 11.8% 9.3% 3.7% 1.0% 0.2% 3 6.4% 5.1% 2.0% 0.5% 0.1% 4+ 3.7% 3.0% 1.2% 0.3% 0.1%

Rows: Nouadhibou goals. Columns: San-Pédro goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Nouadhibou vs San-Pédro goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 90%

Over 1.5 71%

Over 2.5 44%

Over 3.5 23%

Both teams to score: 45%
No goals (0–0): 10%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Nouadhibou vs San-Pédro

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Nouadhibou	56%	1.79
	Draw	27%	3.71
	San-Pédro	17%	5.87
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	44%	2.30
	Under 2.5	56%	1.77
Both teams to score	Yes	45%	2.22
	No	55%	1.82
Double chance	1X (Nouadhibou or draw)	83%	1.21
	12 (either side)	73%	1.37
	X2 (draw or San-Pédro)	44%	2.27
Handicap -1	Nouadhibou win by 2+	31%	3.21
	Push (exactly one goal)	25%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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