Petro de Luanda vs Scotland Mabvuku Prediction & Betting Tips 23/10/2026

Petro de Luanda vs Scotland Mabvuku preview

In the CAF Champions League fixture between Petro de Luanda and Scotland Mabvuku, the 1X2 probabilities show Petro de Luanda at 45%, while Scotland Mabvuku sits at 18%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, with a 20% chance according to our model.

Petro de Luanda's expected goals are 1.01, compared to Scotland Mabvuku's 0.55. However, the low probabilities for Over 2.5 goals at 21% and both teams to score at 28% suggest that a high-scoring match is unlikely. The confidence grade is C, indicating some uncertainty in the predictions.

Petro de Luanda vs Scotland Mabvuku: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Petro de Luanda	Draw	Scotland Mabvuku
Model	45%	37%	19%
Market	—	—	—
Published	45%	37%	19%
Edge	—	—	—

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.01 vs 0.55.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Petro de Luanda and Scotland Mabvuku expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.01Petro de Luanda

0.55Scotland Mabvuku

Total expected goals: 1.56
Attack rating (Petro de Luanda / Scotland Mabvuku): 1.10 / 0.85
Defence rating (Petro de Luanda / Scotland Mabvuku): 0.89 / 0.71

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Petro de Luanda vs Scotland Mabvuku score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 22.2% 10.5% 3.2% 0.6% 0.1% 1 20.0% 12.9% 3.2% 0.6% 0.1% 2 10.7% 5.9% 1.6% 0.3% 0.0% 3 3.6% 2.0% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 4+ 1.1% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%

Rows: Petro de Luanda goals. Columns: Scotland Mabvuku goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Petro de Luanda vs Scotland Mabvuku goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 78%

Over 1.5 47%

Over 2.5 21%

Over 3.5 7%

Both teams to score: 28%
No goals (0–0): 22%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Petro de Luanda vs Scotland Mabvuku

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Petro de Luanda	45%	2.24
	Draw	37%	2.72
	Scotland Mabvuku	19%	5.37
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	21%	4.86
	Under 2.5	79%	1.26
Both teams to score	Yes	28%	3.56
	No	72%	1.39
Double chance	1X (Petro de Luanda or draw)	81%	1.23
	12 (either side)	63%	1.58
	X2 (draw or Scotland Mabvuku)	55%	1.80
Handicap -1	Petro de Luanda win by 2+	18%	5.52
	Push (exactly one goal)	26%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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