1º de Agosto vs Virunga Prediction & Betting Tips 23/10/2026

1º de Agosto vs Virunga preview

In the CAF Confederation Cup fixture, 1º de Agosto has a 50% chance to win, while Virunga stands at 18%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, which aligns with the expected goals of 1.25 for 1º de Agosto and 0.64 for Virunga.

However, the prediction could be challenged if both teams manage to score, as the probability for both teams to score is 35%. Additionally, the model indicates a 29% chance of Over 2.5 goals, suggesting the potential for a more open game than expected. Recent form shows 1º de Agosto with two wins and a draw, while Virunga has a single recent win.

1º de Agosto vs Virunga: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	1º de Agosto	Draw	Virunga
Model	50%	32%	18%
Market	—	—	—
Published	50%	32%	18%
Edge	—	—	—

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.25 vs 0.64.
Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 4 vs 1 for the opposition.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

1º de Agosto and Virunga expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.251º de Agosto

0.64Virunga

Total expected goals: 1.89
Attack rating (1º de Agosto / Virunga): 1.06 / 0.98
Defence rating (1º de Agosto / Virunga): 0.72 / 0.83

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

1º de Agosto vs Virunga score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 16.3% 8.4% 3.1% 0.7% 0.1% 1 17.6% 13.3% 3.9% 0.8% 0.2% 2 11.8% 7.6% 2.4% 0.5% 0.1% 3 4.9% 3.2% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0% 4+ 2.0% 1.3% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%

Rows: 1º de Agosto goals. Columns: Virunga goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

1º de Agosto vs Virunga goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 84%

Over 1.5 58%

Over 2.5 29%

Over 3.5 12%

Both teams to score: 35%
No goals (0–0): 16%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for 1º de Agosto vs Virunga

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	1º de Agosto	50%	2.00
	Draw	32%	3.11
	Virunga	18%	5.61
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	29%	3.39
	Under 2.5	71%	1.42
Both teams to score	Yes	35%	2.86
	No	65%	1.54
Double chance	1X (1º de Agosto or draw)	82%	1.22
	12 (either side)	68%	1.47
	X2 (draw or Virunga)	50%	2.00
Handicap -1	1º de Agosto win by 2+	24%	4.22
	Push (exactly one goal)	26%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Compare the market for this pick

Where to bet on this match in Kenya

Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit

All betting sites

#	Welcome offer	Why it is here	Visit
1	50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply.	M-PESA Paybill 290059 Daily Jackpot Live betting	Get offer
2	First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply.	1,000+ events every day Live betting around the clock 30+ markets on live events	Get offer
3	100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply.	M-Pesa and Airtel Money deposits Live in-play betting Android and iOS app	Get offer
4	200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply.	1,000+ events every day 30+ markets on live events 24/7 customer support	Get offer