Al Ahli Tripoli vs Welwalo Adigrat Uni Prediction & Betting Tips 24/10/2026

Al Ahli Tripoli vs Welwalo Adigrat Uni preview

In the CAF Confederation Cup fixture between Al Ahli Tripoli and Welwalo Adigrat Uni, the 1X2 probabilities show Al Ahli Tripoli at 68%, while Welwalo Adigrat Uni sits at 10%. The most likely scoreline predicted is 2-0, with a 14% chance. Al Ahli Tripoli's expected goals are 2.05 compared to Welwalo Adigrat Uni's 0.69, indicating a strong attacking performance from the hosts.

However, the confidence grade for this match is C, suggesting some uncertainty. While there is a 51% chance of Over 2.5 goals and a 44% chance for both teams to score, unexpected events such as a strong defensive display from Welwalo Adigrat Uni could alter the outcome.

Al Ahli Tripoli vs Welwalo Adigrat Uni: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Al Ahli Tripoli	Draw	Welwalo Adigrat Uni
Model	68%	21%	10%
Market	—	—	—
Published	68%	21%	10%
Edge	—	—	—

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.05 vs 0.69.
Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Al Ahli Tripoli and Welwalo Adigrat Uni expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

2.05Al Ahli Tripoli

0.69Welwalo Adigrat Uni

Total expected goals: 2.73
Attack rating (Al Ahli Tripoli / Welwalo Adigrat Uni): 1.34 / 1.09
Defence rating (Al Ahli Tripoli / Welwalo Adigrat Uni): 0.69 / 1.07

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Al Ahli Tripoli vs Welwalo Adigrat Uni score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 7.4% 3.5% 1.5% 0.3% 0.1% 1 12.4% 10.0% 3.1% 0.7% 0.1% 2 13.6% 9.3% 3.2% 0.7% 0.1% 3 9.3% 6.4% 2.2% 0.5% 0.1% 4+ 7.6% 5.2% 1.8% 0.4% 0.1%

Rows: Al Ahli Tripoli goals. Columns: Welwalo Adigrat Uni goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Al Ahli Tripoli vs Welwalo Adigrat Uni goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 93%

Over 1.5 77%

Over 2.5 51%

Over 3.5 29%

Both teams to score: 44%
No goals (0–0): 7%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Al Ahli Tripoli vs Welwalo Adigrat Uni

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Al Ahli Tripoli	68%	1.46
	Draw	21%	4.72
	Welwalo Adigrat Uni	10%	9.57
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	51%	1.94
	Under 2.5	49%	2.06
Both teams to score	Yes	44%	2.27
	No	56%	1.79
Double chance	1X (Al Ahli Tripoli or draw)	90%	1.12
	12 (either side)	79%	1.27
	X2 (draw or Welwalo Adigrat Uni)	32%	3.16
Handicap -1	Al Ahli Tripoli win by 2+	44%	2.26
	Push (exactly one goal)	24%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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