ASC Kara vs Diarra Prediction & Betting Tips 25/10/2026

ASC Kara vs Diarra preview

In the CAF Confederation Cup match between ASC Kara and Diarra, the 1X2 probabilities show ASC Kara at 50%, a draw at 29%, and Diarra at 21%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, with a 13% chance of occurring.

ASC Kara has an expected goals figure of 1.45, while Diarra sits at 0.87. With 41% for Over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score, the match could see fewer goals if Diarra fails to improve their scoring. The recent form shows ASC Kara with mixed results, while Diarra has a draw and a win. This could affect the outcome, given the confidence grade of C.

ASC Kara vs Diarra: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	ASC Kara	Draw	Diarra
Model	50%	29%	21%
Market	—	—	—
Published	50%	29%	21%
Edge	—	—	—

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.45 vs 0.87.
Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

ASC Kara and Diarra expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.45ASC Kara

0.87Diarra

Total expected goals: 2.32
Attack rating (ASC Kara / Diarra): 1.21 / 0.96
Defence rating (ASC Kara / Diarra): 0.99 / 0.84

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

ASC Kara vs Diarra score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 11.0% 7.3% 3.7% 1.1% 0.3% 1 13.0% 13.6% 5.4% 1.6% 0.4% 2 10.4% 9.0% 3.9% 1.1% 0.3% 3 5.0% 4.4% 1.9% 0.5% 0.1% 4+ 2.5% 2.2% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1%

Rows: ASC Kara goals. Columns: Diarra goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

ASC Kara vs Diarra goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 89%

Over 1.5 69%

Over 2.5 41%

Over 3.5 21%

Both teams to score: 46%
No goals (0–0): 11%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for ASC Kara vs Diarra

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	ASC Kara	50%	2.02
	Draw	29%	3.43
	Diarra	21%	4.71
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	41%	2.44
	Under 2.5	59%	1.69
Both teams to score	Yes	46%	2.19
	No	54%	1.84
Double chance	1X (ASC Kara or draw)	79%	1.27
	12 (either side)	71%	1.41
	X2 (draw or Diarra)	50%	1.98
Handicap -1	ASC Kara win by 2+	25%	3.93
	Push (exactly one goal)	24%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Compare the market for this pick

Where to bet on this match in Kenya

Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit

All betting sites

#	Welcome offer	Why it is here	Visit
1	50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply.	M-PESA Paybill 290059 Daily Jackpot Live betting	Get offer
2	First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply.	1,000+ events every day Live betting around the clock 30+ markets on live events	Get offer
3	100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply.	M-Pesa and Airtel Money deposits Live in-play betting Android and iOS app	Get offer
4	200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply.	1,000+ events every day 30+ markets on live events 24/7 customer support	Get offer