Black Bulls Maputo vs Rayon Sports Prediction & Betting Tips 24/10/2026

Black Bulls Maputo vs Rayon Sports preview

In the CAF Confederation Cup fixture between Black Bulls Maputo and Rayon Sports, the 1X2 probabilities show Black Bulls Maputo at 43%, with a most likely scoreline of 1-0 at 22%. The expected goals indicate Black Bulls Maputo at 0.91 and Rayon Sports at 0.48, suggesting a low-scoring match.

However, the confidence grade is C, indicating uncertainty. Both teams to score stands at 24%, and Over 2.5 goals is just 16%. If Rayon Sports improves their recent form, which includes three draws and two losses, they could challenge the expected outcome.

Black Bulls Maputo vs Rayon Sports: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Black Bulls Maputo	Draw	Rayon Sports
Model	43%	39%	17%
Market	—	—	—
Published	43%	39%	17%
Edge	—	—	—

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 0.91 vs 0.48.
Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Black Bulls Maputo and Rayon Sports expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

0.91Black Bulls Maputo

0.48Rayon Sports

Total expected goals: 1.38
Attack rating (Black Bulls Maputo / Rayon Sports): 0.70 / 0.74
Defence rating (Black Bulls Maputo / Rayon Sports): 0.70 / 0.91

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Black Bulls Maputo vs Rayon Sports score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 26.2% 10.8% 2.8% 0.4% 0.1% 1 21.7% 11.9% 2.6% 0.4% 0.1% 2 10.3% 4.9% 1.2% 0.2% 0.0% 3 3.1% 1.5% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 4+ 0.9% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%

Rows: Black Bulls Maputo goals. Columns: Rayon Sports goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Black Bulls Maputo vs Rayon Sports goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 74%

Over 1.5 41%

Over 2.5 16%

Over 3.5 5%

Both teams to score: 24%
No goals (0–0): 26%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Black Bulls Maputo vs Rayon Sports

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Black Bulls Maputo	43%	2.31
	Draw	39%	2.55
	Rayon Sports	17%	5.74
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	16%	6.16
	Under 2.5	84%	1.19
Both teams to score	Yes	24%	4.23
	No	76%	1.31
Double chance	1X (Black Bulls Maputo or draw)	83%	1.21
	12 (either side)	61%	1.65
	X2 (draw or Rayon Sports)	57%	1.76
Handicap -1	Black Bulls Maputo win by 2+	16%	6.13
	Push (exactly one goal)	27%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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