Atlético Ottawa vs Cavalry FC Prediction & Betting Tips 30/09/2026

Atlético Ottawa vs Cavalry FC: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Atlético Ottawa	Draw	Cavalry FC
Model	15%	24%	62%
Market	20%	23%	57%
Published	19%	23%	58%
Edge	-6%	+1%	+5%

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.90 vs 0.82.
Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
The market prices Cavalry FC below the model: +4.9 percentage points of edge.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Atlético Ottawa vs Cavalry FC odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Cavalry FC, 4 snapshots since 2026-09-29.

Opened 1.70Now 1.60 -0.10

Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
Selection	First	Latest	Move
Atlético Ottawa	4.07	4.47	+0.40
Draw	3.66	4.00	+0.34
Cavalry FC	1.70	1.60	-0.10

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Atlético Ottawa and Cavalry FC expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

0.82Atlético Ottawa

1.90Cavalry FC

Total expected goals: 2.72
Attack rating (Atlético Ottawa / Cavalry FC): 0.91 / 1.48
Defence rating (Atlético Ottawa / Cavalry FC): 0.97 / 0.53

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Atlético Ottawa vs Cavalry FC score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 7.6% 11.5% 11.9% 7.5% 5.5% 1 4.4% 11.3% 9.8% 6.2% 4.5% 2 2.2% 4.2% 4.0% 2.5% 1.9% 3 0.6% 1.2% 1.1% 0.7% 0.5% 4+ 0.1% 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1%

Rows: Atlético Ottawa goals. Columns: Cavalry FC goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Atlético Ottawa vs Cavalry FC goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 92%

Over 1.5 77%

Over 2.5 51%

Over 3.5 29%

Both teams to score: 49%
No goals (0–0): 8%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Atlético Ottawa vs Cavalry FC

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Atlético Ottawa	19%	5.29
	Draw	23%	4.35
	Cavalry FC	58%	1.72
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	51%	1.95
	Under 2.5	49%	2.05
Both teams to score	Yes	49%	2.05
	No	51%	1.95
Double chance	1X (Atlético Ottawa or draw)	42%	2.39
	12 (either side)	77%	1.30
	X2 (draw or Cavalry FC)	81%	1.23
Handicap -1	Cavalry FC win by 2+	38%	2.65
	Push (exactly one goal)	24%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Atlético Ottawa and Cavalry FC recent form

Atlético Ottawa 2W 1D 3L

Cavalry FC 5W 1D 0L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Atlético Ottawa at home

Record (W-D-L): 7-3-2
Win rate: 58%
Goals for / match: 1.75
Goals against / match: 1.25
Clean sheets: 3 of 12

They have won 11 of their 24 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
They have kept 5 clean sheets in 24 matches.
They have failed to score in 5 of 24 matches.
Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
They have converted 2 of 4 penalties (50%).
51% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Cavalry FC away

Record (W-D-L): 7-2-2
Win rate: 64%
Goals for / match: 1.64
Goals against / match: 0.55
Clean sheets: 5 of 11

They have won 16 of their 23 league games this season, scoring 2.1 goals per match.
They average 2.5 goals per game at home against 1.6 on the road.
They have kept 10 clean sheets in 23 matches.
They have failed to score in 3 of 23 matches.
Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).

League matches this season before kick-off: Atlético Ottawa at home only, Cavalry FC away only.

Atlético Ottawa vs Cavalry FC head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Atlético Ottawa 4 · draws 2 · Cavalry FC 4.

40% 20% 40%

Atlético OttawaDrawsCavalry FC

Previous meetings
Date	Home	Score	Away	Competition
2026-08-22	Cavalry FC	3-1	Atlético Ottawa	Canadian Premier League
2026-07-04	Atlético Ottawa	0-3	Cavalry FC	Canadian Premier League
2026-04-12	Cavalry FC	3-1	Atlético Ottawa	Canadian Premier League
2025-11-09	Atlético Ottawa	2-1	Cavalry FC	Canadian Premier League
2025-09-27	Atlético Ottawa	3-0	Cavalry FC	Canadian Premier League
2025-08-23	Atlético Ottawa	2-2	Cavalry FC	Canadian Premier League
2025-06-28	Cavalry FC	0-2	Atlético Ottawa	Canadian Premier League
2025-04-26	Cavalry FC	1-3	Atlético Ottawa	Canadian Premier League
2024-09-15	Cavalry FC	2-2	Atlético Ottawa	Canadian Premier League
2024-08-03	Atlético Ottawa	1-2	Cavalry FC	Canadian Premier League