Forge vs HFX Wanderers FC: model vs market
| Source | Forge | Draw | HFX Wanderers FC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 55% | 25% | 20% |
| Market | 62% | 22% | 16% |
| Published | 61% | 23% | 17% |
| Edge | -8% | +3% | +4% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.83 vs 1.03.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Forge vs HFX Wanderers FC odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Forge, 4 snapshots since 2026-10-02.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forge | 1.46 | 1.46 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 4.25 | 4.20 | -0.05 |
| HFX Wanderers FC | 5.88 | 5.78 | -0.10 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Forge and HFX Wanderers FC expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.86
- Attack rating (Forge / HFX Wanderers FC)
- 1.00 / 1.11
- Defence rating (Forge / HFX Wanderers FC)
- 0.70 / 1.07
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Forge vs HFX Wanderers FC score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Forge goals. Columns: HFX Wanderers FC goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Forge vs HFX Wanderers FC goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 55%
- No goals (0–0)
- 7%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Forge vs HFX Wanderers FC
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Forge | 61% | 1.65 |
| Draw | 23% | 4.44 | |
| HFX Wanderers FC | 17% | 5.92 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 54% | 1.84 |
| Under 2.5 | 46% | 2.20 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 55% | 1.81 |
| No | 45% | 2.23 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Forge or draw) | 83% | 1.20 |
| 12 (either side) | 77% | 1.29 | |
| X2 (draw or HFX Wanderers FC) | 39% | 2.54 | |
| Handicap -1 | Forge win by 2+ | 32% | 3.12 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Forge and HFX Wanderers FC recent form
Forge
2W 3D 1L
HFX Wanderers FC
3W 0D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Forge at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 8-2-1
- Win rate
- 73%
- Goals for / match
- 1.55
- Goals against / match
- 0.55
- Clean sheets
- 7 of 11
- They have won 14 of their 23 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They have kept 10 clean sheets in 23 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 23 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 6 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
HFX Wanderers FC away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-2-7
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 1.33
- Goals against / match
- 1.67
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 12
- They have won 7 of their 24 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 24 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 24 matches.
- They have converted 7 of 7 penalties (100%).
- 46% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Forge at home only, HFX Wanderers FC away only.
Forge vs HFX Wanderers FC head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Forge 7 · draws 2 · HFX Wanderers FC 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-02 | HFX Wanderers FC | 0-0 | Forge | Canadian Premier League |
| 2026-06-10 | Forge | 1-0 | HFX Wanderers FC | Canadian Premier League |
| 2026-05-09 | Forge | 4-0 | HFX Wanderers FC | Canadian Championship |
| 2026-05-02 | HFX Wanderers FC | 1-3 | Forge | Canadian Premier League |
| 2025-09-06 | Forge | 1-0 | HFX Wanderers FC | Canadian Premier League |
| 2025-07-25 | HFX Wanderers FC | 1-2 | Forge | Canadian Premier League |
| 2025-06-08 | Forge | 2-1 | HFX Wanderers FC | Canadian Premier League |
| 2025-05-07 | Forge | 3-1 | HFX Wanderers FC | Canadian Championship |
| 2025-05-03 | HFX Wanderers FC | 0-0 | Forge | Canadian Premier League |
| 2024-09-14 | HFX Wanderers FC | 3-0 | Forge | Canadian Premier League |