Supra du Quebec vs Pacific FC: model vs market
| Source | Supra du Quebec | Draw | Pacific FC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 35% | 23% | 42% |
| Market | 55% | 23% | 22% |
| Published | 50% | 23% | 27% |
| Edge | -20% | +1% | +19% |
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Supra du Quebec vs Pacific FC odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Supra du Quebec, 4 snapshots since 2026-10-03.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Supra du Quebec | 1.64 | 1.65 | +0.01 |
| Draw | 4.00 | 4.00 | +0.00 |
| Pacific FC | 4.16 | 4.06 | -0.10 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Supra du Quebec and Pacific FC expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.66
- Attack rating (Supra du Quebec / Pacific FC)
- 0.86 / 1.04
- Defence rating (Supra du Quebec / Pacific FC)
- 1.38 / 1.19
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Supra du Quebec vs Pacific FC score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Supra du Quebec goals. Columns: Pacific FC goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Supra du Quebec vs Pacific FC goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 71%
- No goals (0–0)
- 3%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Supra du Quebec vs Pacific FC
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Supra du Quebec | 50% | 2.00 |
| Draw | 23% | 4.37 | |
| Pacific FC | 27% | 3.68 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 71% | 1.41 |
| Under 2.5 | 29% | 3.43 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 71% | 1.40 |
| No | 29% | 3.49 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Supra du Quebec or draw) | 73% | 1.37 |
| 12 (either side) | 77% | 1.30 | |
| X2 (draw or Pacific FC) | 50% | 2.00 | |
| Handicap -1 | Supra du Quebec win by 2+ | 18% | 5.45 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 17% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Supra du Quebec and Pacific FC recent form
Supra du Quebec
2W 1D 3L
Pacific FC
2W 3D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Supra du Quebec at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-2-6
- Win rate
- 27%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.55
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 11
- They have won 7 of their 23 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 1.7 goals per game on the road against 1.0 at home.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 23 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).
- 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Pacific FC away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-5-5
- Win rate
- 9%
- Goals for / match
- 1.45
- Goals against / match
- 2.27
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 11
- They have won 2 of their 23 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 23 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 5 penalties (100%).
- 45% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Supra du Quebec at home only, Pacific FC away only.
Supra du Quebec vs Pacific FC head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: Supra du Quebec 2 · draws 1 · Pacific FC 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-01 | Pacific FC | 1-2 | Supra du Quebec | Canadian Premier League |
| 2026-06-06 | Supra du Quebec | 1-1 | Pacific FC | Canadian Premier League |
| 2026-04-11 | Pacific FC | 2-3 | Supra du Quebec | Canadian Premier League |