York United vs Cavalry FC: model vs market
| Source | York United | Draw | Cavalry FC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 14% | 16% | 70% |
| Market | 20% | 22% | 58% |
| Published | 18% | 21% | 61% |
| Edge | -6% | -7% | +13% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 3.08 vs 1.41.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Cavalry FC below the model: +12.5 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
York United vs Cavalry FC odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Cavalry FC, 3 snapshots since 2026-10-02.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| York United | 5.25 | 4.60 | -0.65 |
| Draw | 4.28 | 4.11 | -0.17 |
| Cavalry FC | 1.50 | 1.59 | +0.09 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
York United and Cavalry FC expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 4.49
- Attack rating (York United / Cavalry FC)
- 1.20 / 1.45
- Defence rating (York United / Cavalry FC)
- 1.60 / 0.69
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
York United vs Cavalry FC score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: York United goals. Columns: Cavalry FC goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
York United vs Cavalry FC goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 73%
- No goals (0–0)
- 2%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for York United vs Cavalry FC
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | York United | 18% | 5.41 |
| Draw | 21% | 4.83 | |
| Cavalry FC | 61% | 1.64 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 82% | 1.21 |
| Under 2.5 | 18% | 5.71 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 73% | 1.38 |
| No | 27% | 3.65 | |
| Double chance | 1X (York United or draw) | 39% | 2.55 |
| 12 (either side) | 79% | 1.26 | |
| X2 (draw or Cavalry FC) | 82% | 1.23 | |
| Handicap -1 | Cavalry FC win by 2+ | 52% | 1.93 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
York United and Cavalry FC recent form
York United
1W 3D 2L
Cavalry FC
4W 1D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
York United at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-3-4
- Win rate
- 36%
- Goals for / match
- 2.18
- Goals against / match
- 2.45
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 11
- They have won 5 of their 23 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
Cavalry FC away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 7-2-3
- Win rate
- 58%
- Goals for / match
- 1.67
- Goals against / match
- 0.75
- Clean sheets
- 5 of 12
- They have won 16 of their 24 league games this season, scoring 2.1 goals per match.
- They average 2.5 goals per game at home against 1.7 on the road.
- They have kept 10 clean sheets in 24 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 24 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).
League matches this season before kick-off: York United at home only, Cavalry FC away only.
York United vs Cavalry FC head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: York United 2 · draws 1 · Cavalry FC 7.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-02 | Cavalry FC | 5-0 | York United | Canadian Premier League |
| 2026-06-10 | York United | 1-5 | Cavalry FC | Canadian Premier League |
| 2026-04-25 | Cavalry FC | 1-1 | York United | Canadian Premier League |
| 2025-10-26 | Cavalry FC | 4-1 | York United | Canadian Premier League |
| 2025-09-05 | York United | 3-1 | Cavalry FC | Canadian Premier League |
| 2025-07-26 | Cavalry FC | 0-1 | York United | Canadian Premier League |
| 2025-06-08 | Cavalry FC | 2-1 | York United | Canadian Premier League |
| 2025-05-03 | York United | 1-2 | Cavalry FC | Canadian Premier League |
| 2024-09-21 | York United | 0-2 | Cavalry FC | Canadian Premier League |
| 2024-08-17 | York United | 1-2 | Cavalry FC | Canadian Premier League |