Universidad de Concepcion vs Huachipato: model vs market
| Source | Universidad de Concepcion | Draw | Huachipato |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 38% | 29% | 33% |
| Market | 46% | 26% | 28% |
| Published | 44% | 27% | 29% |
| Edge | -8% | +2% | +6% |
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Universidad de Concepcion vs Huachipato odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Universidad de Concepcion, 52 snapshots since 2026-09-06.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Universidad de Concepcion | 2.30 | 2.02 | -0.28 |
| Draw | 3.26 | 3.50 | +0.24 |
| Huachipato | 2.86 | 3.36 | +0.50 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Universidad de Concepcion and Huachipato expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.62
- Attack rating (Universidad de Concepcion / Huachipato)
- 0.65 / 0.89
- Defence rating (Universidad de Concepcion / Huachipato)
- 1.23 / 1.33
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Universidad de Concepcion vs Huachipato score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Universidad de Concepcion goals. Columns: Huachipato goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Universidad de Concepcion vs Huachipato goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 55%
- No goals (0–0)
- 9%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Universidad de Concepcion vs Huachipato
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Universidad de Concepcion | 44% | 2.27 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.70 | |
| Huachipato | 29% | 3.45 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 49% | 2.05 |
| Under 2.5 | 51% | 1.95 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 55% | 1.83 |
| No | 45% | 2.20 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Universidad de Concepcion or draw) | 71% | 1.41 |
| 12 (either side) | 73% | 1.37 | |
| X2 (draw or Huachipato) | 56% | 1.78 | |
| Handicap -1 | Universidad de Concepcion win by 2+ | 18% | 5.51 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Universidad de Concepcion and Huachipato recent form
Universidad de Concepcion
1W 0D 5L
Huachipato
1W 1D 4L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Universidad de Concepcion at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 5-1-4
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 0.80
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 10
- They have won 6 of their 22 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 22 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 22 matches.
Huachipato away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-2-6
- Win rate
- 27%
- Goals for / match
- 0.82
- Goals against / match
- 1.55
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 11
- They have won 8 of their 22 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 1.9 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 22 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 22 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
- 44% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Universidad de Concepcion at home only, Huachipato away only.
Universidad de Concepcion vs Huachipato head-to-head
Last 7 meetings: Universidad de Concepcion 1 · draws 2 · Huachipato 4.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-07 | Huachipato | 5-1 | Universidad de Concepcion | Chile Primera División |
| 2020-11-23 | Universidad de Concepcion | 0-1 | Huachipato | Primera División |
| 2020-02-08 | Huachipato | 1-1 | Universidad de Concepcion | Primera División |
| 2019-08-18 | Universidad de Concepcion | 1-1 | Huachipato | Primera División |
| 2019-05-19 | Huachipato | 1-0 | Universidad de Concepcion | Primera División |
| 2018-08-05 | Universidad de Concepcion | 1-0 | Huachipato | Primera División |
| 2018-02-24 | Huachipato | 3-0 | Universidad de Concepcion | Primera División |