Upcoming HNL fixtures
5 fixtures in our publication window — every row opens the full prediction; 55 more scheduled later this season.
| Match | League | Pick | Edge | Model | Market | Conf. | Best odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HNK Gorica vs RudesHNLC | HNL | HNK GoricaOur prob 56%Best odds 1.62 | -8% | 50% | 58% | C | 1.62 |
| HNK Hajduk Split vs Dinamo ZagrebHNLC | HNL | Dinamo ZagrebOur prob 38%Best odds 2.26 | -14% | 28% | 42% | C | 2.26 |
| NK Osijek vs Istra 1961HNLC | HNL | NK OsijekOur prob 48%Best odds 2.02 | +4% | 51% | 47% | C | 2.02 |
| NK Lokomotiva Zagreb vs NK VarazdinHNLC | HNL | NK VarazdinOur prob 40%Best odds 2.32 | -2% | 39% | 41% | C | 2.32 |
| NK Slaven Belupo vs HNK RijekaHNLC | HNL | HNK RijekaOur prob 56%Best odds 1.65 | -4% | 53% | 57% | C | 1.65 |
Our prob = the probability we publish for that pick — the model blended with the de-vigged market price where one is recorded; the Model and Market columns are the two inputs behind it. Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability; grade A/B = the pick is backed by both/one team's xG record. Best odds = the top bookmaker price on our pick, taking each book at its own last update.
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HNL table
2026/27 season · computed from played results — ranked by points, then goal difference, then goals scored. Form: last five, newest first.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Dinamo Zagreb |
7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 17 | 9 | +8 | 16 | |
| 2 |  NK Osijek |
8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 17 | 11 | +6 | 16 | |
| 3 |  NK Varazdin |
8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 13 | 7 | +6 | 15 | |
| 4 |  HNK Rijeka |
7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 13 | 7 | +6 | 14 | |
| 5 |  HNK Hajduk Split |
8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 14 | 10 | +4 | 13 | |
| 6 |  NK Lokomotiva Zagreb |
8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 13 | 14 | -1 | 10 | |
| 7 |  Istra 1961 |
8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 14 | 13 | +1 | 9 | |
| 8 |  NK Slaven Belupo |
8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 7 | 16 | -9 | 7 | |
| 9 |  HNK Gorica |
8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 12 | -7 | 5 | |
| 10 |  Rudes |
8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 10 | 24 | -14 | 4 |
P = played, GD = goal difference, Pts = points. Not an imported table: it is rebuilt from the results in our database, so it may lag the official one by a match.
HNL trends
How HNL matches actually ended in the 2026/27: 39 played matches. A record of results, not a forecast.
Change is in percentage points against the 2025/26 season (180 played matches).
Top HNL teams by model rating
The attack and defence rates our model feeds into every prediction, as of the last update. Net = attack − defence, in goals per match.
- Net rating
- +0.51
- Attack
- 1.83
- Defence
- 1.33
- Net rating
- +0.45
- Attack
- 1.83
- Defence
- 1.38
- Net rating
- +0.37
- Attack
- 1.49
- Defence
- 1.13
Rates are decay-weighted over each team’s last 15 completed matches — xG where the window is xG-backed, goals otherwise — and shrunk towards the league average; a higher attack and a lower defence rate are better. Form: last five results, newest first.
Top scorers in HNL
From the HNL scoring charts this season — goals first, then assists. Not a full squad list.
-
D. BeljoDinamo Zagreb
9 G 3 A
- E. FrederiksenIstra 1961 7 G 2 A
- A. LeónNK Osijek 5 G 1 A
- N. OmerovićNK Osijek 5 G 0 A
- I. NestorovskiNK Slaven Belupo 5 G 0 A
- D. Adu-AdjeiHNK Rijeka 4 G 3 A
- H. JaganjacIstra 1961 4 G 1 A
- M. ŠegoHNK Hajduk Split 4 G 0 A
Recent HNL results
Last 6 played — what we predicted and what happened.
| Date | Match | Our pick | Our prob | Score | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dinamo Zagreb vs NK Lokomotiva ZagrebOur pick Dinamo Zagreb · 73% | Dinamo Zagreb to win | 73% | 3–2 | Correct | |
| HNK Rijeka vs HNK Hajduk SplitOur pick HNK Rijeka · 43% | HNK Rijeka to win | 43% | 3–0 | Correct | |
| Istra 1961 vs HNK GoricaOur pick Istra 1961 · 53% | Istra 1961 to win | 53% | 0–1 | Missed | |
| NK Varazdin vs NK OsijekOur pick NK Varazdin · 48% | NK Varazdin to win | 48% | 0–0 | Missed | |
| Rudes vs NK Slaven BelupoOur pick NK Slaven Belupo · 42% | NK Slaven Belupo to win | 42% | 2–2 | Missed | |
| HNK Gorica vs NK VarazdinOur pick NK Varazdin · 46% | NK Varazdin to win | 46% | 2–2 | Missed |
Our pick = the 1X2 selection we published before kick-off, with the probability we gave it; Correct/Missed compares that pick with the final result.