Upcoming National Division fixtures
8 fixtures in our publication window — every row opens the full prediction; 52 more scheduled later this season.
| Match | League | Pick | Edge | Model | Market | Conf. | Best odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Differdange 03 vs Résidence WalferdangeNational DivisionC | National Division | FC Differdange 03Our prob 49% | — | 49% | — | C | — |
| Racing FC Union Luxembourg vs Atert BissenNational DivisionC | National Division | Racing FC Union LuxembourgOur prob 53% | — | 53% | — | C | — |
| US Rumelange vs US Mondorf-les-bainsNational DivisionC | National Division | US Mondorf-les-bainsOur prob 70% | — | 70% | — | C | — |
| UN Kaerjeng 97 vs AS Jeunesse EschNational DivisionC | National Division | UN Kaerjeng 97Our prob 60% | — | 60% | — | C | — |
| US Hostert vs Progres NiederkornNational DivisionC | National Division | Progres NiederkornOur prob 38% | — | 38% | — | C | — |
| Etzella Ettelbruck vs F91 DudelangeNational DivisionC | National Division | Etzella EttelbruckOur prob 37% | — | 37% | — | C | — |
| Wiltz vs UNA StrassenNational DivisionC | National Division | UNA StrassenOur prob 73% | — | 73% | — | C | — |
| Swift Hesperange vs Victoria RosportNational DivisionC | National Division | Victoria RosportOur prob 62% | — | 62% | — | C | — |
Our prob = the probability we publish for that pick — the model blended with the de-vigged market price where one is recorded; the Model and Market columns are the two inputs behind it. Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability; grade A/B = the pick is backed by both/one team's xG record. Best odds = the top bookmaker price on our pick, taking each book at its own last update.
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National Division table
2026/27 season · computed from played results — ranked by points, then goal difference, then goals scored. Form: last five, newest first.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  UNA Strassen |
8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 2 | +15 | 24 | |
| 2 |  FC Differdange 03 |
8 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 18 | 6 | +12 | 18 | |
| 3 |  US Mondorf-les-bains |
8 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 16 | 11 | +5 | 18 | |
| 4 |  Racing FC Union Luxembourg |
8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 21 | 8 | +13 | 17 | |
| 5 |  Progres Niederkorn |
8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 5 | +8 | 16 | |
| 6 |  UN Kaerjeng 97 |
8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 23 | 15 | +8 | 15 | |
| 7 |  Atert Bissen |
8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 18 | 11 | +7 | 15 | |
| 8 |  Résidence Walferdange |
8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 16 | 10 | +6 | 15 | |
| 9 |  US Hostert |
8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 14 | 11 | +3 | 11 | |
| 10 |  Etzella Ettelbruck |
8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 14 | -7 | 8 | |
| 11 |  AS Jeunesse Esch |
8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 14 | 17 | -3 | 7 | |
| 12 |  F91 Dudelange |
8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 8 | 15 | -7 | 7 | |
| 13 |  US Rumelange |
8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 8 | 23 | -15 | 6 | |
| 14 |  Victoria Rosport |
8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 11 | 20 | -9 | 5 | |
| 15 |  Wiltz |
8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 14 | 22 | -8 | 4 | |
| 16 |  Swift Hesperange |
8 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 2 | 30 | -28 | 0 |
P = played, GD = goal difference, Pts = points. Not an imported table: it is rebuilt from the results in our database, so it may lag the official one by a match.
National Division trends
How National Division matches actually ended in the 2026/27: 64 played matches. A record of results, not a forecast.
Change is in percentage points against the 2025/26 season (242 played matches).
Top National Division teams by model rating
The attack and defence rates our model feeds into every prediction, as of the last update. Net = attack − defence, in goals per match.
- Net rating
- +0.94
- Attack
- 1.68
- Defence
- 0.74
- Net rating
- +0.93
- Attack
- 2.25
- Defence
- 1.31
- Net rating
- +0.86
- Attack
- 1.79
- Defence
- 0.93
Rates are decay-weighted over each team’s last 15 completed matches — xG where the window is xG-backed, goals otherwise — and shrunk towards the league average; a higher attack and a lower defence rate are better. Form: last five results, newest first.
Recent National Division results
Last 6 played — what we predicted and what happened.
| Date | Match | Our pick | Our prob | Score | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| F91 Dudelange vs UN Kaerjeng 97Our pick UN Kaerjeng 97 · 38% | UN Kaerjeng 97 to win | 38% | 2–4 | Correct | |
| Progres Niederkorn vs Racing FC Union LuxembourgOur pick Progres Niederkorn · 38% | Progres Niederkorn to win | 38% | 0–0 | Missed | |
| FC Differdange 03 vs Swift HesperangeOur pick FC Differdange 03 · 88% | FC Differdange 03 to win | 88% | 3–0 | Correct | |
| AS Jeunesse Esch vs US HostertOur pick AS Jeunesse Esch · 41% | AS Jeunesse Esch to win | 41% | 1–1 | Missed | |
| UNA Strassen vs US RumelangeOur pick UNA Strassen · 83% | UNA Strassen to win | 83% | 2–0 | Correct | |
| Victoria Rosport vs Etzella EttelbruckOur pick Etzella Ettelbruck · 41% | Etzella Ettelbruck to win | 41% | 1–1 | Missed |
Our pick = the 1X2 selection we published before kick-off, with the probability we gave it; Correct/Missed compares that pick with the final result.