Updated

Poland · 2026/27 season

I Liga Football Predictions

Model-driven 1X2, over/under, BTTS and correct-score probabilities for every I Liga fixture — 18 clubs, 108 of 306 matches played, 88 fixtures predicted so far this season. Built from expected-goals ratings and de-vigged market odds, never from tips.

Teams 18 in the 2026/27 season
Matches played 108 of 306 scheduled this season
Prediction pages 7 fixtures in our publication window
Fixtures predicted 88 so far this season

Upcoming I Liga fixtures

7 fixtures in our publication window — every row opens the full prediction; 53 more scheduled later this season.

I Liga fixtures in our publication window with our pick, edge and best market odds
MatchLeaguePickEdgeOursMarketConf.Best odds
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki vs Stal MielecI LigaC I Liga Pogoń Grod. MazowieckiOur prob 48%Best odds 2.15 +4% 48% 44% C 2.15
Miedz Legnica vs NiecieczaI LigaC I Liga Miedz LegnicaOur prob 41%Best odds 2.26 0% 41% 41% C 2.26
Lechia Gdansk vs Unia SkierniewiceI LigaC I Liga Lechia GdanskOur prob 55%Best odds 1.75 +2% 55% 53% C 1.75
Podbeskidzie vs Warta PoznańI LigaC I Liga Warta PoznańOur prob 37% — 37% — C —
Polonia Bytom vs Odra OpoleI LigaC I Liga Polonia BytomOur prob 49% — 49% — C —
ŁKS Łódź vs Polonia WarszawaI LigaC I Liga Polonia WarszawaOur prob 35% — 35% — C —
Stal Rzeszów vs Puszcza NiepołomiceI LigaC I Liga Stal RzeszówOur prob 43% — 43% — C —

Our prob = the probability we publish for that pick (the Ours column) — our model blended with the de-vigged market price where one is recorded; Market = that de-vigged market probability. Edge = Ours minus Market; grade A/B = the pick is backed by both/one team's xG record. Best odds = the top bookmaker price on our pick, taking each book at its own last update.

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I Liga table

2026/27 season · computed from played results — ranked by points, then goal difference, then goals scored. Form: last five, newest first.

I Liga table from played results
#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1 Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki 12 633 1911 +8 21
2 Polonia Warszawa 12 633 1914 +5 21
3 Ruch Chorzów 12 633 1611 +5 21
4 ŁKS Łódź 12 633 1511 +4 21
5 Nieciecza 12 624 1917 +2 20
6 Lechia Gdansk 12 615 2219 +3 19
7 Miedz Legnica 12 534 1811 +7 18
8 Warta Poznań 12 606 1916 +3 18
9 Polonia Bytom 12 462 2020 0 18
10 Stal Rzeszów 12 525 1622 -6 17
11 Pogoń Siedlce 12 435 1415 -1 15
12 Arka Gdynia 12 426 1616 0 14
13 Podbeskidzie 12 282 1516 -1 14
14 Chrobry Głogów 12 345 1315 -2 13
15 Stal Mielec 12 345 1627 -11 13
16 Puszcza Niepołomice 12 408 1317 -4 12
17 Odra Opole 12 336 813 -5 12
18 Unia Skierniewice 12 327 1320 -7 11

P = played, GD = goal difference, Pts = points. Not an imported table: it is rebuilt from the results in our database, so it may lag the official one by a match.

I Liga trends

How I Liga matches actually ended in the 2026/27: 108 played matches. A record of results, not a forecast.

Home wins 44% 48 of 108 matches +3 pts vs 2025/26 (308)
Away wins 31% 34 of 108 matches 0 pts vs 2025/26 (308)
Over 2.5 goals 51% 55 of 108 matches -9 pts vs 2025/26 (308)
Both teams scored 54% 58 of 108 matches -11 pts vs 2025/26 (308)

Change is in percentage points against the 2025/26 season (308 played matches).

Top I Liga teams by model rating

The attack and defence rates our model feeds into every prediction, as of the last update. Net = attack − defence, in goals per match.

Net rating
+0.68
Attack
1.62
Defence
0.93
Form NextPogoń Siedlce (A) · 3 Nov

Rates are decay-weighted over each team’s last 15 completed matches — xG where the window is xG-backed, goals otherwise — and shrunk towards the league average; a higher attack and a lower defence rate are better. Form: last five results, newest first.

Recent I Liga results

Last 6 played — what we predicted and what happened.

Recent I Liga results with our pre-match pick
DateMatchOur pickOur probScorePick
Warta Poznań vs ŁKS ŁódźOur pick Warta Poznań · 38% Warta Poznań to win 38% 0–1 Missed
Podbeskidzie vs Stal RzeszówOur pick Podbeskidzie · 44% Podbeskidzie to win 44% 2–1 Correct
Ruch Chorzów vs Pogoń Grod. MazowieckiOur pick Ruch Chorzów · 54% Ruch Chorzów to win 54% 2–0 Correct
Odra Opole vs Pogoń SiedlceOur pick Odra Opole · 44% Odra Opole to win 44% 0–1 Missed
Puszcza Niepołomice vs Lechia GdanskOur pick Lechia Gdansk · 42% Lechia Gdansk to win 42% 2–1 Missed
Unia Skierniewice vs Polonia BytomOur pick Polonia Bytom · 38% Polonia Bytom to win 38% 1–2 Correct

Our pick = the 1X2 selection we published before kick-off, with the probability we gave it; Correct/Missed compares that pick with the final result.