Slovan Liberec vs Baník Ostrava preview
In the Czech Liga match between Slovan Liberec and Baník Ostrava, the 1X2 probabilities show Slovan Liberec at 50%, while Baník Ostrava sits at 20%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, with a 15% chance according to our model. Slovan Liberec has a stronger expected goals figure of 1.38 compared to Baník Ostrava's 0.79.
However, the recent form indicates that Slovan Liberec has won 5 of their last 6 matches, while Baník Ostrava has only secured 1 win in their last 6. The chances of Over 2.5 goals are at 37%, and both teams to score is at 42%. These factors could influence the outcome, as Baník Ostrava may surprise with a better performance.
Slovan Liberec vs Baník Ostrava: model vs market
| Source | Slovan Liberec | Draw | Baník Ostrava |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 44% | 34% | 22% |
| Market | 57% | 24% | 19% |
| Published | 54% | 26% | 20% |
| Edge | -13% | +10% | +2% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.13 vs 0.71.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.64, recorded — the top price across the 2 books we record, each at its own last update.
Slovan Liberec vs Baník Ostrava odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Slovan Liberec, 3 snapshots since 2026-10-18.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Slovan Liberec | 1.63 | 1.63 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 3.88 | 3.88 | +0.00 |
| Baník Ostrava | 4.74 | 4.74 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Slovan Liberec and Baník Ostrava expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 1.84
- Attack rating (Slovan Liberec / Baník Ostrava)
- 0.78 / 0.80
- Defence rating (Slovan Liberec / Baník Ostrava)
- 0.72 / 1.01
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Slovan Liberec vs Baník Ostrava score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Slovan Liberec goals. Columns: Baník Ostrava goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Slovan Liberec vs Baník Ostrava goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 36%
- No goals (0–0)
- 17%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Slovan Liberec vs Baník Ostrava
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Slovan Liberec | 54% | 1.87 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.79 | |
| Baník Ostrava | 20% | 4.98 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 28% | 3.58 |
| Under 2.5 | 72% | 1.39 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 36% | 2.80 |
| No | 64% | 1.55 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Slovan Liberec or draw) | 80% | 1.25 |
| 12 (either side) | 74% | 1.36 | |
| X2 (draw or Baník Ostrava) | 46% | 2.15 | |
| Handicap -1 | Slovan Liberec win by 2+ | 19% | 5.19 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 25% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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Slovan Liberec and Baník Ostrava recent form
Slovan Liberec
3W 1D 2L
Baník Ostrava
0W 2D 4L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Slovan Liberec at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-2
- Win rate
- 40%
- Goals for / match
- 1.20
- Goals against / match
- 0.80
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 5
- They have won 6 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 10 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
Baník Ostrava away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-4
- Win rate
- 17%
- Goals for / match
- 0.67
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 6
- They have won 3 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 10 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Slovan Liberec at home only, Baník Ostrava away only.
Slovan Liberec vs Baník Ostrava head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Slovan Liberec 2 · draws 0 · Baník Ostrava 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-15 | Slovan Liberec | 1-0 | Baník Ostrava | Czech Liga |
| 2025-09-13 | Baník Ostrava | 0-2 | Slovan Liberec | Czech Liga |
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- Slavia Praha v Mlada Boleslav — match page 2026-10-24
- Hradec Králové v FK Jablonec — match page 2026-10-25
- Sparta Praha v Slovácko — match page 2026-10-25
- Plzen vs Pardubice — team news & stats 2026-10-25
Before and after this match
- Slovan Liberec, previous: Sigma Olomouc – Slovan Liberec, 2026-10-17
- Baník Ostrava, previous: Baník Ostrava v Sparta Praha analysis