Antigua GFC vs Municipal preview
Antigua GFC faces Municipal in the Guatemala Liga Nacional, with Municipal holding a 45% chance to win compared to Antigua GFC's 28%. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, which aligns with the expected goals of 1.21 for Antigua GFC and 1.59 for Municipal.
Both teams to score has a 57% probability, while Over 2.5 goals stands at 53%. However, Antigua GFC's recent form shows three losses followed by two wins, which could impact their performance. Municipal's stronger recent form, with four wins and two draws, may also influence the match outcome. The confidence grade for this fixture is C, indicating some uncertainty in the model's predictions.
Antigua GFC vs Municipal: model vs market
| Source | Antigua GFC | Draw | Municipal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 28% | 27% | 45% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 28% | 27% | 45% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.59 vs 1.21.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Antigua GFC and Municipal expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.80
- Attack rating (Antigua GFC / Municipal)
- 1.28 / 1.40
- Defence rating (Antigua GFC / Municipal)
- 1.34 / 0.57
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Antigua GFC vs Municipal score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Antigua GFC goals. Columns: Municipal goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Antigua GFC vs Municipal goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 57%
- No goals (0–0)
- 7%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Antigua GFC vs Municipal
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Antigua GFC | 28% | 3.60 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.69 | |
| Municipal | 45% | 2.22 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 53% | 1.89 |
| Under 2.5 | 47% | 2.13 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 57% | 1.76 |
| No | 43% | 2.32 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Antigua GFC or draw) | 55% | 1.82 |
| 12 (either side) | 73% | 1.37 | |
| X2 (draw or Municipal) | 72% | 1.38 | |
| Handicap -1 | Municipal win by 2+ | 24% | 4.20 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 4 |  |
200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Antigua GFC and Municipal recent form
Antigua GFC
3W 0D 3L
Municipal
4W 2D 0L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Antigua GFC at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 5-0-0
- Win rate
- 100%
- Goals for / match
- 2.40
- Goals against / match
- 0.80
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 5
- They have won 7 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- They average 2.4 goals per game at home against 1.5 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 11 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
Municipal away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-0-1
- Win rate
- 75%
- Goals for / match
- 1.25
- Goals against / match
- 0.75
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 7 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Antigua GFC at home only, Municipal away only.
Antigua GFC vs Municipal head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Antigua GFC 5 · draws 2 · Municipal 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-12 | Antigua GFC | 1-0 | Municipal | Guatemala Liga Nacional |
| 2026-02-22 | Municipal | 4-2 | Antigua GFC | Guatemala Liga Nacional |
| 2025-12-28 | Municipal | 1-0 | Antigua GFC | Guatemala Liga Nacional |
| 2025-12-22 | Antigua GFC | 2-0 | Municipal | Guatemala Liga Nacional |
| 2025-11-23 | Municipal | 2-1 | Antigua GFC | Guatemala Liga Nacional |
| 2025-09-18 | Antigua GFC | 1-1 | Municipal | Guatemala Liga Nacional |
| 2025-05-18 | Municipal | 1-2 | Antigua GFC | Liga Nacional |
| 2025-05-16 | Antigua GFC | 0-0 | Municipal | Liga Nacional |
| 2025-04-02 | Municipal | 1-2 | Antigua GFC | Liga Nacional |
| 2025-01-30 | Antigua GFC | 2-1 | Municipal | Liga Nacional |