Municipal vs Aurora preview
Municipal faces Aurora with a 57% probability of winning, while Aurora has only a 17% chance. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, occurring 11% of the time according to our model. Municipal's expected goals stand at 1.76, compared to Aurora's 0.88, indicating a clear attacking advantage for the home side.
However, both teams to score and Over 2.5 goals are both at 49%, suggesting a potential for a more open game. Municipal's recent form shows mixed results with W-L-D-D-L-D, while Aurora comes in with stronger momentum, having won 4 of their last 6 matches. This could impact the outcome, making it less predictable despite the statistical edge for Municipal.
Municipal vs Aurora: model vs market
| Source | Municipal | Draw | Aurora |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 56% | 27% | 17% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 56% | 27% | 17% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.65 vs 0.81.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Municipal and Aurora expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.45
- Attack rating (Municipal / Aurora)
- 0.90 / 1.22
- Defence rating (Municipal / Aurora)
- 0.77 / 1.13
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Municipal vs Aurora score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Municipal goals. Columns: Aurora goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Municipal vs Aurora goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 46%
- No goals (0–0)
- 10%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Municipal vs Aurora
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Municipal | 56% | 1.78 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.74 | |
| Aurora | 17% | 5.85 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 44% | 2.25 |
| Under 2.5 | 56% | 1.80 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 46% | 2.18 |
| No | 54% | 1.85 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Municipal or draw) | 83% | 1.21 |
| 12 (either side) | 73% | 1.36 | |
| X2 (draw or Aurora) | 44% | 2.28 | |
| Handicap -1 | Municipal win by 2+ | 31% | 3.18 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 25% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Municipal and Aurora recent form
Municipal
1W 2D 3L
Aurora
4W 1D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Municipal at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 5-4-0
- Win rate
- 56%
- Goals for / match
- 1.78
- Goals against / match
- 0.56
- Clean sheets
- 5 of 9
- They have won 8 of their 17 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 0.9 on the road.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 17 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 17 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
Aurora away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-6
- Win rate
- 22%
- Goals for / match
- 1.56
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 9
- They have won 8 of their 17 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 17 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 41% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Municipal at home only, Aurora away only.
Municipal vs Aurora head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Municipal 3 · draws 1 · Aurora 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-10 | Aurora | 1-2 | Municipal | Guatemala Liga Nacional |
| 2026-03-15 | Municipal | 4-1 | Aurora | Guatemala Liga Nacional |
| 2026-01-25 | Aurora | 2-2 | Municipal | Guatemala Liga Nacional |
| 2025-10-05 | Aurora | 1-0 | Municipal | Guatemala Liga Nacional |
| 2025-07-26 | Municipal | 2-1 | Aurora | Guatemala Liga Nacional |
Other Matchday 19 fixtures
- Guastatoya vs Suchitepéquez — team news & stats 2026-11-07
- Mixco vs Deportivo San Pedro — team news & stats 2026-11-07
- Marquense v Comunicaciones — match page 2026-11-08
- Cobán Imperial v Xelajú — match page 2026-11-08
- Antigua GFC vs Malacateco 2026-11-09
Before and after this match
- Municipal, previous: Deportivo San Pedro – Municipal, 2026-11-01
- Aurora, previous: Aurora vs Antigua GFC prediction