We do not operate on Telegram
Alin does not have a Telegram channel, group or bot. This page also does not list or endorse other people’s channels. It looks at the format itself — why a stream of tips makes unchecked claims feel easy to trust, and what you should ask before taking one seriously.
Why this format can make tipsters look better
People do not have to lie for this to happen. The structure of the channel already helps the claim.
- The past can be tidied up. Messages can be removed, and a channel can begin again from zero. You normally see a selected version of the record, with no clear way to know what has been left out.
- Odds need a time attached. A tip only says something useful when it is matched to the price available when it was posted. Without that detail, a winner shared after the odds fell looks the same as one shared before the move.
- Selections are not probabilities. A list of picks can be judged only by hit rate, not by calibration, which means checking whether stated chances match real results. Hit rate is easy to lift by choosing short-priced favourites.
- “10 from 12 this week” proves nothing on its own. If you cannot see every week and every pick inside those weeks, the sample has been chosen after the results. The weeks that would have made it 4 from 12 are simply absent from the post.
- Activity can look like ability. Twenty selections a day ensure there are winners to screenshot. The losing picks move down the feed.
- Check where the money comes from. If payment comes through a bookmaker signup link, the channel can earn even when your bets lose. That matters for anyone — including us: our bookmaker links also pay on signup. The difference we can point to is that our numbers are calculated before any of that exists, and the bet button is not shown on any row where our own model says the price is poor.
Checks to make before following one
Show every pick, not just selected ones
You need the full record for a stated period, losers included, with the price available at posting time. If that record is missing, any percentage claimed from it is missing too.
Put a probability beside the selection
Even an approximate chance turns a view into something that can later be measured. Leaving it out is a decision.
Explain what sits behind the number
This is the same test as anywhere else. “Insider information” is either untrue or a reason to stay away.
Allow the claim to fail
If no result could make the claim look bad, treat it as advertising and read it that way.
What probabilities add that tips cannot
A tip says “back this”. A probability says “this is how likely it is, and this is whether the price looks wrong” — something you can review later across hundreds of matches against the actual results. That is why every fixture on this site shows a percentage rather than a recommendation, and why the accuracy page can exist at all.
When you want to see where our model and the market disagree in one place, use value bets. Both figures are shown, so you can judge the gap instead of just taking our word for it.