Bjarg vs Kjelsås preview
In the fixture between Bjarg and Kjelsås, the 1X2 probabilities show Bjarg at 42%, Kjelsås at 35%, and a draw at 23%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, with an 8% chance. Both teams to score and Over 2.5 goals both have a high probability of 74%.
Bjarg's expected goals are 2.03, while Kjelsås has 1.85. Recent form favors Bjarg, who has won 4 of their last 6 matches, compared to Kjelsås, who has won 3 of their last 6. However, if Kjelsås can improve their scoring, they could challenge Bjarg's recent dominance. The confidence grade for this match is C, indicating some uncertainty in the predictions.
Bjarg vs Kjelsås: model vs market
| Source | Bjarg | Draw | Kjelsås |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 42% | 23% | 35% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 42% | 23% | 35% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Bjarg and Kjelsås expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.88
- Attack rating (Bjarg / Kjelsås)
- 1.16 / 1.12
- Defence rating (Bjarg / Kjelsås)
- 1.03 / 0.92
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Bjarg vs Kjelsås score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Bjarg goals. Columns: Kjelsås goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Bjarg vs Kjelsås goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 74%
- No goals (0–0)
- 3%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Bjarg vs Kjelsås
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Bjarg | 42% | 2.37 |
| Draw | 23% | 4.44 | |
| Kjelsås | 35% | 2.83 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 74% | 1.35 |
| Under 2.5 | 26% | 3.89 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 74% | 1.35 |
| No | 26% | 3.84 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Bjarg or draw) | 65% | 1.55 |
| 12 (either side) | 77% | 1.29 | |
| X2 (draw or Kjelsås) | 58% | 1.73 | |
| Handicap -1 | Bjarg win by 2+ | 24% | 4.15 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
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Bjarg and Kjelsås recent form
Bjarg
4W 0D 2L
Kjelsås
3W 1D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.