Cienciano vs Club Deportivo Los Chankas: model vs market
| Source | Cienciano | Draw | Club Deportivo Los Chankas |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 81% | 12% | 7% |
| Market | 63% | 21% | 16% |
| Published | 68% | 19% | 14% |
| Edge | +18% | -9% | -9% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 3.25 vs 0.95.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
- The market prices Cienciano below the model: +17.7 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Cienciano vs Club Deportivo Los Chankas odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Cienciano, 10 snapshots since 2026-09-26.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cienciano | 1.31 | 1.45 | +0.14 |
| Draw | 5.10 | 4.40 | -0.70 |
| Club Deportivo Los Chankas | 7.55 | 5.75 | -1.80 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Cienciano and Club Deportivo Los Chankas expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 4.21
- Attack rating (Cienciano / Club Deportivo Los Chankas)
- 1.19 / 0.80
- Defence rating (Cienciano / Club Deportivo Los Chankas)
- 1.12 / 1.67
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Cienciano vs Club Deportivo Los Chankas score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Cienciano goals. Columns: Club Deportivo Los Chankas goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Cienciano vs Club Deportivo Los Chankas goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 60%
- No goals (0–0)
- 2%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Cienciano vs Club Deportivo Los Chankas
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Cienciano | 68% | 1.48 |
| Draw | 19% | 5.36 | |
| Club Deportivo Los Chankas | 14% | 7.31 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 79% | 1.27 |
| Under 2.5 | 21% | 4.77 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 60% | 1.68 |
| No | 40% | 2.47 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Cienciano or draw) | 86% | 1.16 |
| 12 (either side) | 81% | 1.23 | |
| X2 (draw or Club Deportivo Los Chankas) | 32% | 3.09 | |
| Handicap -1 | Cienciano win by 2+ | 64% | 1.56 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 17% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Cienciano and Club Deportivo Los Chankas recent form
Cienciano
2W 0D 4L
Club Deportivo Los Chankas
0W 1D 5L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Cienciano at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 8-2-3
- Win rate
- 62%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.08
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 13
- They have won 12 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.5 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 26 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 26 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 6 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 7 penalties (71%).
Club Deportivo Los Chankas away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-4-5
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 0.92
- Goals against / match
- 2.08
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 12
- They have won 12 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 1.7 goals per game at home against 0.9 on the road.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 26 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 26 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 8 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Cienciano at home only, Club Deportivo Los Chankas away only.
Cienciano vs Club Deportivo Los Chankas head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Cienciano 6 · draws 2 · Club Deportivo Los Chankas 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-23 | Club Deportivo Los Chankas | 1-0 | Cienciano | Peru Primera División |
| 2025-08-05 | Cienciano | 3-0 | Club Deportivo Los Chankas | Peru Primera División |
| 2025-03-23 | Club Deportivo Los Chankas | 0-0 | Cienciano | Peru Primera División |
| 2024-08-03 | Cienciano | 0-0 | Club Deportivo Los Chankas | Primera División |
| 2024-02-26 | Club Deportivo Los Chankas | 1-2 | Cienciano | Primera División |
| 2019-09-08 | Cienciano | 3-0 | Club Deportivo Los Chankas | Segunda División |
| 2019-07-08 | Cienciano | 5-0 | Club Deportivo Los Chankas | Copa Bicentenario |
| 2019-05-26 | Club Deportivo Los Chankas | 2-1 | Cienciano | Segunda División |
| 2018-10-28 | Cienciano | 4-0 | Club Deportivo Los Chankas | Segunda División |
| 2018-07-15 | Club Deportivo Los Chankas | 0-1 | Cienciano | Segunda División |