Svenska Cupen · Final

Trollhättan vs Mjallby AIF

Full time1 – 0

Alin prediction was Mjallby AIF to win

Cblended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 1 – 2

7% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
TrollhättanDrawMjallby AIF

Trollhättan vs Mjallby AIF: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceTrollhättanDrawMjallby AIF
Model44%28%29%
Market13%19%68%
Published21%21%59%
Edge+31%+9%-40%

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Trollhättan and Mjallby AIF expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.53Trollhättan
1.21Mjallby AIF
Total expected goals
2.75
Attack rating (Trollhättan / Mjallby AIF)
0.97 / 0.54
Defence rating (Trollhättan / Mjallby AIF)
1.04 / 1.15

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Trollhättan vs Mjallby AIF score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 7.6% 6.6% 4.7% 1.9% 0.8% 1 8.7% 13.1% 7.2% 2.9% 1.2% 2 7.6% 9.2% 5.5% 2.2% 0.9% 3 3.9% 4.7% 2.8% 1.1% 0.5% 4+ 2.1% 2.5% 1.5% 0.6% 0.2%

Rows: Trollhättan goals. Columns: Mjallby AIF goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Trollhättan vs Mjallby AIF goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 92%
Over 1.5 77%
Over 2.5 52%
Over 3.5 30%
Both teams to score
56%
No goals (0–0)
8%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Trollhättan vs Mjallby AIF

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Trollhättan21%4.85
Draw21%4.81
Mjallby AIF59%1.71
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.552%1.93
Under 2.548%2.07
Both teams to scoreYes56%1.78
No44%2.29
Double chance1X (Trollhättan or draw)41%2.41
12 (either side)79%1.26
X2 (draw or Mjallby AIF)79%1.26
Handicap -1Mjallby AIF win by 2+12%8.03
Push (exactly one goal)16%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Trollhättan and Mjallby AIF recent form

Trollhättan 1W 0D 1L
Mjallby AIF 0W 2D 4L

Last 2 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Trollhättan vs Mjallby AIF head-to-head

Last 2 meetings: Trollhättan 0 · draws 2 · Mjallby AIF 0.

TrollhättanDrawsMjallby AIF
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2016-10-09Trollhättan1-1Mjallby AIFEttan - Södra
2016-04-24Mjallby AIF2-2TrollhättanEttan - Södra