Azam vs Mashujaa preview
In the Tanzania Premier League fixture between Azam and Mashujaa, the 1X2 probabilities show Azam at 74%, with a most likely scoreline of 2-0 at 14%. Azam's expected goals stand at 2.32, while Mashujaa's is only 0.65. This indicates a strong advantage for Azam, who have also shown better recent form with 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
However, the match could deviate from expectations if Mashujaa manages to improve their scoring, as they have a 44% chance of both teams scoring. Additionally, the confidence grade is C, suggesting some uncertainty in the forecast. If Mashujaa can capitalize on any defensive lapses from Azam, the outcome may differ from the predicted scoreline.
Azam vs Mashujaa: model vs market
| Source | Azam | Draw | Mashujaa |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 74% | 18% | 8% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 74% | 18% | 8% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.32 vs 0.65.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Azam and Mashujaa expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.97
- Attack rating (Azam / Mashujaa)
- 1.29 / 0.93
- Defence rating (Azam / Mashujaa)
- 0.77 / 1.33
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Azam vs Mashujaa score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Azam goals. Columns: Mashujaa goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Azam vs Mashujaa goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 44%
- No goals (0–0)
- 6%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Azam vs Mashujaa
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Azam | 74% | 1.35 |
| Draw | 18% | 5.58 | |
| Mashujaa | 8% | 12.54 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 57% | 1.76 |
| Under 2.5 | 43% | 2.32 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 44% | 2.28 |
| No | 56% | 1.78 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Azam or draw) | 92% | 1.09 |
| 12 (either side) | 82% | 1.22 | |
| X2 (draw or Mashujaa) | 26% | 3.86 | |
| Handicap -1 | Azam win by 2+ | 51% | 1.95 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 4 |  |
200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Azam and Mashujaa recent form
Azam
3W 2D 1L
Mashujaa
3W 0D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Azam at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-0-1
- Win rate
- 75%
- Goals for / match
- 1.50
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 4 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
- 42% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Mashujaa away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-4
- Win rate
- 20%
- Goals for / match
- 0.60
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 5
- They have won 4 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 0.5 on the road.
League matches this season before kick-off: Azam at home only, Mashujaa away only.
Azam vs Mashujaa head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Azam 1 · draws 1 · Mashujaa 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-16 | Azam | 2-0 | Mashujaa | Tanzania Premier League |
| 2026-03-19 | Mashujaa | 0-0 | Azam | Tanzania Premier League |
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
- Polisi Tanzania vs Pamba Jiji — team news & stats 2026-10-23
- Simba vs Mbeya City 2026-10-24
- Dodoma Jiji vs Young Africans — team news & stats 2026-10-24
- Singida Black Stars vs Tabora United 2026-10-24
- JKT Tanzania v Kagera Sugar — match page 2026-10-24
Before and after this match
- Azam, previous: Masr vs Azam: odds and pick
- Azam, next: Azam vs Masr prediction
- Mashujaa, previous: Simba – Mashujaa, 2026-10-13