Chernihiv vs Inhulets preview
In the Persha Liga fixture between Chernihiv and Inhulets, the 1X2 probabilities show Chernihiv at 37%, Inhulets at 34%, and a draw at 29%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, with a 9% chance. Both teams to score stands at 54%, indicating a reasonable expectation for goals from both sides, while Over 2.5 goals is at 48%, suggesting a close contest.
Chernihiv's recent form includes 5 losses in their last 6 matches, while Inhulets has won 2 of their last 6. The expected goals are 1.33 for Chernihiv and 1.28 for Inhulets, showing a slight edge for Chernihiv. However, Inhulets has a strong head-to-head record with 3 wins in the last 4 encounters, which could influence the outcome.
Chernihiv vs Inhulets: model vs market
| Source | Chernihiv | Draw | Inhulets |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 37% | 29% | 34% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 37% | 29% | 34% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Chernihiv and Inhulets expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.55
- Attack rating (Chernihiv / Inhulets)
- 0.88 / 0.90
- Defence rating (Chernihiv / Inhulets)
- 1.29 / 1.12
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Chernihiv vs Inhulets score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Chernihiv goals. Columns: Inhulets goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Chernihiv vs Inhulets goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 53%
- No goals (0–0)
- 9%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Chernihiv vs Inhulets
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Chernihiv | 37% | 2.72 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.42 | |
| Inhulets | 34% | 2.94 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 47% | 2.14 |
| Under 2.5 | 53% | 1.88 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 53% | 1.88 |
| No | 47% | 2.13 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Chernihiv or draw) | 66% | 1.52 |
| 12 (either side) | 71% | 1.41 | |
| X2 (draw or Inhulets) | 63% | 1.58 | |
| Handicap -1 | Chernihiv win by 2+ | 17% | 5.89 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
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Chernihiv and Inhulets recent form
Chernihiv
1W 0D 5L
Inhulets
1W 1D 4L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Chernihiv at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-2-0
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 1.33
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 3
- They have won 2 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Inhulets away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-2-4
- Win rate
- 14%
- Goals for / match
- 0.86
- Goals against / match
- 1.86
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 7
- They have won 5 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 13 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 13 matches.
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Chernihiv at home only, Inhulets away only.
Chernihiv vs Inhulets head-to-head
Last 4 meetings: Chernihiv 0 · draws 1 · Inhulets 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-23 | Chernihiv | 1-2 | Inhulets | Persha Liga |
| 2025-11-02 | Inhulets | 1-1 | Chernihiv | Persha Liga |
| 2023-10-08 | Inhulets | 6-1 | Chernihiv | Persha Liga |
| 2023-08-07 | Chernihiv | 0-2 | Inhulets | Persha Liga |
Before and after this match
- Chernihiv, previous: Chernihiv vs Kolos Kovalivka II prediction
- Inhulets, previous: Inhulets vs Kulykiv prediction