Puerto Cabello vs Monagas SC preview
In the match between Puerto Cabello and Monagas SC, the 1X2 probabilities show Puerto Cabello at 56%, with a most likely scoreline of 2-1 (10%). Puerto Cabello's expected goals stand at 1.82, while Monagas SC's is lower at 1.04. This indicates a strong offensive potential for Puerto Cabello.
However, recent form could impact the outcome. Puerto Cabello has a mixed record with W-L-L-L-W-D, while Monagas SC has struggled, recording L-L-W-L-L-D. Both teams to score is at 55%, and Over 2.5 goals is at 54%, suggesting that while Puerto Cabello is favored, unexpected performances could lead to different results.
Puerto Cabello vs Monagas SC: model vs market
| Source | Puerto Cabello | Draw | Monagas SC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 55% | 25% | 20% |
| Market | 56% | 25% | 19% |
| Published | 56% | 25% | 19% |
| Edge | 0% | 0% | 0% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.82 vs 1.04.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.67, recorded — the top price across the 7 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -7.1% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Puerto Cabello and Monagas SC expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.85
- Attack rating (Puerto Cabello / Monagas SC)
- 1.06 / 0.93
- Defence rating (Puerto Cabello / Monagas SC)
- 1.00 / 1.25
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Puerto Cabello vs Monagas SC score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Puerto Cabello goals. Columns: Monagas SC goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Puerto Cabello vs Monagas SC goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 55%
- No goals (0–0)
- 7%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Puerto Cabello vs Monagas SC
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Puerto Cabello | 56% | 1.80 |
| Draw | 25% | 4.01 | |
| Monagas SC | 19% | 5.15 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 54% | 1.84 |
| Under 2.5 | 46% | 2.19 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 55% | 1.81 |
| No | 45% | 2.23 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Puerto Cabello or draw) | 81% | 1.24 |
| 12 (either side) | 75% | 1.33 | |
| X2 (draw or Monagas SC) | 44% | 2.25 | |
| Handicap -1 | Puerto Cabello win by 2+ | 32% | 3.16 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 4 |  |
200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Puerto Cabello and Monagas SC recent form
Puerto Cabello
2W 1D 3L
Monagas SC
1W 1D 4L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Puerto Cabello at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 9-4-5
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.67
- Goals against / match
- 1.06
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 18
- They have won 15 of their 38 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 1.7 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have kept 10 clean sheets in 38 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 38 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 5 penalties (100%).
- 39% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Monagas SC away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-2-10
- Win rate
- 20%
- Goals for / match
- 1.20
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 15
- They have won 9 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 31 matches.
- They have failed to score in 10 of 31 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Puerto Cabello at home only, Monagas SC away only.
Puerto Cabello vs Monagas SC head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Puerto Cabello 4 · draws 4 · Monagas SC 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-24 | Monagas SC | 1-2 | Puerto Cabello | Venezuela Primera División |
| 2026-10-18 | Puerto Cabello | 3-3 | Monagas SC | Venezuela Primera División |
| 2026-04-25 | Monagas SC | 1-1 | Puerto Cabello | Venezuela Primera División |
| 2026-03-04 | Puerto Cabello | 0-0 | Monagas SC | CONMEBOL Sudamericana |
| 2025-11-04 | Puerto Cabello | 3-2 | Monagas SC | Venezuela Primera División |
| 2025-10-21 | Monagas SC | 1-2 | Puerto Cabello | Venezuela Primera División |
| 2025-08-06 | Puerto Cabello | 2-3 | Monagas SC | Copa Venezuela |
| 2025-08-03 | Monagas SC | 1-1 | Puerto Cabello | Venezuela Primera División |
| 2025-07-29 | Monagas SC | 2-0 | Puerto Cabello | Copa Venezuela |
| 2025-02-23 | Puerto Cabello | 1-0 | Monagas SC | Venezuela Primera División |
Before and after this match
- Puerto Cabello, previous: Caracas FC vs Puerto Cabello prediction
- Monagas SC, previous: Monagas SC vs Deportivo Tachira FC: odds and pick