Benin vs Mauritania: model vs market
| Source | Benin | Draw | Mauritania |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 42% | 32% | 25% |
| Market | 38% | 32% | 30% |
| Published | 39% | 32% | 29% |
| Edge | +5% | 0% | -5% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.20 vs 0.84.
- The market prices Benin below the model: +4.9 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Benin vs Mauritania odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Benin, 3 snapshots since 2026-09-28.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Benin | 2.53 | 2.43 | -0.10 |
| Draw | 2.82 | 2.85 | +0.03 |
| Mauritania | 2.88 | 3.00 | +0.12 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Benin and Mauritania expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.03
- Attack rating (Benin / Mauritania)
- 0.80 / 0.67
- Defence rating (Benin / Mauritania)
- 1.10 / 1.07
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Benin vs Mauritania score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Benin goals. Columns: Mauritania goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Benin vs Mauritania goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 41%
- No goals (0–0)
- 14%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Benin vs Mauritania
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Benin | 39% | 2.58 |
| Draw | 32% | 3.11 | |
| Mauritania | 29% | 3.44 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 34% | 2.97 |
| Under 2.5 | 66% | 1.51 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 41% | 2.42 |
| No | 59% | 1.71 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Benin or draw) | 71% | 1.41 |
| 12 (either side) | 68% | 1.47 | |
| X2 (draw or Mauritania) | 61% | 1.63 | |
| Handicap -1 | Benin win by 2+ | 19% | 5.16 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Benin and Mauritania recent form
Benin
1W 1D 4L
Mauritania
2W 2D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Benin vs Mauritania head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Benin 1 · draws 0 · Mauritania 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019-06-18 | Benin | 3-1 | Mauritania | Friendlies |
| 2017-03-24 | Mauritania | 1-0 | Benin | Friendlies |