Congo vs Cameroon: model vs market
| Source | Congo | Draw | Cameroon |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 12% | 23% | 65% |
| Market | 17% | 26% | 58% |
| Published | 15% | 25% | 60% |
| Edge | -5% | -3% | +8% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.84 vs 0.69.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
- The market prices Cameroon below the model: +7.7 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Congo vs Cameroon odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Cameroon, 4 snapshots since 2026-09-28.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Congo | 5.50 | 5.51 | +0.01 |
| Draw | 3.55 | 3.60 | +0.05 |
| Cameroon | 1.61 | 1.60 | -0.01 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Congo and Cameroon expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.54
- Attack rating (Congo / Cameroon)
- 0.66 / 1.09
- Defence rating (Congo / Cameroon)
- 1.49 / 0.75
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Congo vs Cameroon score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Congo goals. Columns: Cameroon goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Congo vs Cameroon goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 43%
- No goals (0–0)
- 9%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Congo vs Cameroon
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Congo | 15% | 6.46 |
| Draw | 25% | 4.01 | |
| Cameroon | 60% | 1.68 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 48% | 2.09 |
| Under 2.5 | 52% | 1.92 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 43% | 2.31 |
| No | 57% | 1.76 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Congo or draw) | 40% | 2.47 |
| 12 (either side) | 75% | 1.33 | |
| X2 (draw or Cameroon) | 85% | 1.18 | |
| Handicap -1 | Cameroon win by 2+ | 39% | 2.58 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 25% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Congo and Cameroon recent form
Congo
0W 1D 5L
Cameroon
4W 1D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Congo vs Cameroon head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Congo 1 · draws 2 · Cameroon 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-01-16 | Cameroon | 1-0 | Congo | African Nations Championship |
| 2020-02-20 | Congo | 1-1 | Cameroon | Friendlies |
| 2018-01-16 | Cameroon | 0-1 | Congo | African Nations Championship |
| 2015-10-31 | Congo | 0-1 | Cameroon | African Nations Championship |
| 2015-10-18 | Cameroon | 0-0 | Congo | African Nations Championship |