Eritrea vs South Africa Prediction & Betting Tips 30/09/2026

Eritrea vs South Africa: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Eritrea	Draw	South Africa
Model	35%	32%	33%
Market	10%	17%	74%
Published	16%	21%	63%
Edge	+26%	+15%	-40%

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Eritrea vs South Africa odds movement

Median bookmaker price on South Africa, 3 snapshots since 2026-09-29.

Opened 1.10Now 1.25 +0.15

Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
Selection	First	Latest	Move
Eritrea	19.00	9.55	-9.45
Draw	8.29	5.47	-2.82
South Africa	1.10	1.25	+0.15

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Eritrea and South Africa expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.13Eritrea

1.09South Africa

Total expected goals: 2.22
Attack rating (Eritrea / South Africa): 1.00 / 1.02
Defence rating (Eritrea / South Africa): 0.96 / 0.83

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Eritrea vs South Africa score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 12.2% 10.5% 6.5% 2.4% 0.8% 1 10.9% 14.7% 7.3% 2.7% 0.9% 2 6.9% 7.6% 4.1% 1.5% 0.5% 3 2.6% 2.9% 1.6% 0.6% 0.2% 4+ 0.9% 1.0% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1%

Rows: Eritrea goals. Columns: South Africa goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Eritrea vs South Africa goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 88%

Over 1.5 66%

Over 2.5 38%

Over 3.5 19%

Both teams to score: 46%
No goals (0–0): 12%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Eritrea vs South Africa

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Eritrea	16%	6.24
	Draw	21%	4.88
	South Africa	63%	1.58
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	38%	2.61
	Under 2.5	62%	1.62
Both teams to score	Yes	46%	2.16
	No	54%	1.86
Double chance	1X (Eritrea or draw)	37%	2.74
	12 (either side)	79%	1.26
	X2 (draw or South Africa)	84%	1.19
Handicap -1	South Africa win by 2+	14%	7.27
	Push (exactly one goal)	19%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Eritrea and South Africa recent form

Eritrea 2W 1D 2L

South Africa 2W 1D 3L

Last 5 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Eritrea at home

Record (W-D-L): 1-0-0
Win rate: 100%
Goals for / match: 2.00
Goals against / match: 0.00
Clean sheets: 1 of 1

League matches this season before kick-off: Eritrea at home only, South Africa away only.