Gabon vs Niger: model vs market
| Source | Gabon | Draw | Niger |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 44% | 22% | 33% |
| Market | 57% | 26% | 17% |
| Published | 54% | 25% | 21% |
| Edge | -13% | -4% | +17% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.09 vs 1.74.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Gabon vs Niger odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Gabon, 3 snapshots since 2026-09-28.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gabon | 1.54 | 1.60 | +0.06 |
| Draw | 3.60 | 3.45 | -0.15 |
| Niger | 6.00 | 5.50 | -0.50 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Gabon and Niger expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.83
- Attack rating (Gabon / Niger)
- 1.20 / 1.21
- Defence rating (Gabon / Niger)
- 1.28 / 1.23
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Gabon vs Niger score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Gabon goals. Columns: Niger goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Gabon vs Niger goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 74%
- No goals (0–0)
- 3%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Gabon vs Niger
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Gabon | 54% | 1.86 |
| Draw | 25% | 3.93 | |
| Niger | 21% | 4.82 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 74% | 1.34 |
| Under 2.5 | 26% | 3.92 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 74% | 1.35 |
| No | 26% | 3.83 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Gabon or draw) | 79% | 1.26 |
| 12 (either side) | 75% | 1.34 | |
| X2 (draw or Niger) | 46% | 2.17 | |
| Handicap -1 | Gabon win by 2+ | 27% | 3.74 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Gabon and Niger recent form
Gabon
1W 0D 5L
Niger
4W 0D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Gabon vs Niger head-to-head
Last 1 meetings: Gabon 0 · draws 0 · Niger 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-06-06 | Gabon | 3-4 | Niger | Friendlies |