Guinea vs Kenya: model vs market
| Source | Guinea | Draw | Kenya |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 37% | 29% | 34% |
| Market | 56% | 28% | 16% |
| Published | 51% | 28% | 20% |
| Edge | -19% | +1% | +18% |
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Guinea vs Kenya odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Guinea, 3 snapshots since 2026-09-30.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Guinea | 1.72 | 1.62 | -0.10 |
| Draw | 3.03 | 3.25 | +0.22 |
| Kenya | 5.50 | 5.75 | +0.25 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Guinea and Kenya expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.61
- Attack rating (Guinea / Kenya)
- 0.90 / 1.14
- Defence rating (Guinea / Kenya)
- 0.94 / 1.11
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Guinea vs Kenya score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Guinea goals. Columns: Kenya goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Guinea vs Kenya goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 54%
- No goals (0–0)
- 9%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Guinea vs Kenya
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Guinea | 51% | 1.95 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.55 | |
| Kenya | 20% | 4.90 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 48% | 2.06 |
| Under 2.5 | 52% | 1.94 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 54% | 1.84 |
| No | 46% | 2.19 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Guinea or draw) | 80% | 1.26 |
| 12 (either side) | 72% | 1.39 | |
| X2 (draw or Kenya) | 49% | 2.06 | |
| Handicap -1 | Guinea win by 2+ | 17% | 5.74 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Guinea and Kenya recent form
Guinea
2W 2D 2L
Kenya
2W 1D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.