Liberia vs Mali Prediction & Betting Tips 29/09/2026

Liberia vs Mali: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Liberia	Draw	Mali
Model	23%	30%	47%
Market	14%	24%	62%
Published	16%	25%	58%
Edge	+9%	+6%	-15%

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.34 vs 0.90.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Liberia vs Mali odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Mali, 3 snapshots since 2026-09-28.

Opened 1.45Now 1.47 +0.02

Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
Selection	First	Latest	Move
Liberia	7.00	6.50	-0.50
Draw	3.83	3.80	-0.03
Mali	1.45	1.47	+0.02

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Liberia and Mali expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

0.90Liberia

1.34Mali

Total expected goals: 2.23
Attack rating (Liberia / Mali): 0.95 / 1.05
Defence rating (Liberia / Mali): 1.13 / 0.67

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Liberia vs Mali score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 12.0% 13.0% 9.6% 4.3% 1.9% 1 8.3% 14.1% 8.6% 3.8% 1.7% 2 4.3% 5.8% 3.9% 1.7% 0.8% 3 1.3% 1.7% 1.2% 0.5% 0.2% 4+ 0.4% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1%

Rows: Liberia goals. Columns: Mali goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Liberia vs Mali goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 88%

Over 1.5 67%

Over 2.5 39%

Over 3.5 19%

Both teams to score: 45%
No goals (0–0): 12%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Liberia vs Mali

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Liberia	16%	6.15
	Draw	25%	3.92
	Mali	58%	1.72
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	40%	2.53
	Under 2.5	60%	1.66
Both teams to score	Yes	45%	2.20
	No	55%	1.83
Double chance	1X (Liberia or draw)	42%	2.39
	12 (either side)	75%	1.34
	X2 (draw or Mali)	84%	1.19
Handicap -1	Mali win by 2+	22%	4.53
	Push (exactly one goal)	24%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Liberia and Mali recent form

Liberia 2W 2D 2L

Mali 1W 4D 1L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.