Somalia vs Ivory Coast Prediction & Betting Tips 29/09/2026

Somalia vs Ivory Coast: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Somalia	Draw	Ivory Coast
Model	7%	22%	70%
Market	3%	8%	88%
Published	4%	12%	84%
Edge	+4%	+14%	-18%

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.75 vs 0.45.
Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Somalia vs Ivory Coast odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Ivory Coast, 3 snapshots since 2026-09-28.

Opened 1.04Now 1.04 +0.00

Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
Selection	First	Latest	Move
Somalia	38.45	29.65	-8.80
Draw	13.00	11.00	-2.00
Ivory Coast	1.04	1.04	+0.00

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Somalia and Ivory Coast expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

0.45Somalia

1.75Ivory Coast

Total expected goals: 2.20
Attack rating (Somalia / Ivory Coast): 0.44 / 1.34
Defence rating (Somalia / Ivory Coast): 1.16 / 0.73

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Somalia vs Ivory Coast score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 12.0% 18.6% 17.0% 9.9% 6.4% 1 4.1% 9.6% 7.6% 4.4% 2.9% 2 1.1% 1.9% 1.7% 1.0% 0.6% 3 0.2% 0.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 4+ 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Rows: Somalia goals. Columns: Ivory Coast goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Somalia vs Ivory Coast goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 88%

Over 1.5 65%

Over 2.5 38%

Over 3.5 18%

Both teams to score: 31%
No goals (0–0): 12%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Somalia vs Ivory Coast

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Somalia	4%	23.77
	Draw	12%	8.39
	Ivory Coast	84%	1.19
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	39%	2.56
	Under 2.5	61%	1.64
Both teams to score	Yes	31%	3.26
	No	69%	1.44
Double chance	1X (Somalia or draw)	16%	6.20
	12 (either side)	88%	1.14
	X2 (draw or Ivory Coast)	96%	1.04
Handicap -1	Ivory Coast win by 2+	41%	2.42
	Push (exactly one goal)	27%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Somalia and Ivory Coast recent form

Somalia 0W 2D 4L

Ivory Coast 3W 0D 3L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Somalia at home

Record (W-D-L): 0-1-0
Win rate: 0%
Goals for / match: 0.00
Goals against / match: 0.00
Clean sheets: 1 of 1

League matches this season before kick-off: Somalia at home only, Ivory Coast away only.