Updated

Algeria Ligue 1 · Matchday 6Postponed

Ben Aknoun vs USM Alger

Alin prediction Ben Aknoun to win

Cmodel only, no market odds

Predicted score 2 – 1

9% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Ben AknounDrawUSM Alger

Ben Aknoun vs USM Alger: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceBen AknounDrawUSM Alger
Model46%26%28%
Market———
Published46%26%28%
Edge———
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.74 vs 1.21.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Ben Aknoun and USM Alger expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.74Ben Aknoun
1.21USM Alger
Total expected goals
2.95
Attack rating (Ben Aknoun / USM Alger)
1.29 / 1.13
Defence rating (Ben Aknoun / USM Alger)
1.21 / 0.99

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Ben Aknoun vs USM Alger score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 6.3% 5.2% 3.8% 1.5% 0.6% 1 8.0% 12.1% 6.7% 2.7% 1.1% 2 7.9% 9.6% 5.8% 2.3% 0.9% 3 4.6% 5.6% 3.4% 1.4% 0.5% 4+ 3.0% 3.6% 2.2% 0.9% 0.3%

Rows: Ben Aknoun goals. Columns: USM Alger goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Ben Aknoun vs USM Alger goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 94%
Over 1.5 80%
Over 2.5 57%
Over 3.5 34%
Both teams to score
61%
No goals (0–0)
6%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Ben Aknoun vs USM Alger

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Ben Aknoun46%2.19
Draw26%3.86
USM Alger28%3.52
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.558%1.72
Under 2.542%2.38
Both teams to scoreYes61%1.64
No39%2.55
Double chance1X (Ben Aknoun or draw)72%1.40
12 (either side)74%1.35
X2 (draw or USM Alger)54%1.84
Handicap -1Ben Aknoun win by 2+27%3.69
Push (exactly one goal)22%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Ben Aknoun and USM Alger recent form

Ben Aknoun 1W 5D 0L
USM Alger 2W 3D 1L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Ben Aknoun at home

Record (W-D-L)
0-2-0
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
2.00
Goals against / match
2.00
Clean sheets
0 of 2

USM Alger away

Record (W-D-L)
1-1-1
Win rate
33%
Goals for / match
1.00
Goals against / match
1.00
Clean sheets
1 of 3

League matches this season before kick-off: Ben Aknoun at home only, USM Alger away only.

Ben Aknoun vs USM Alger head-to-head

Last 2 meetings: Ben Aknoun 0 · draws 2 · USM Alger 0.

Ben AknounDrawsUSM Alger
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-06-04Ben Aknoun2-2USM AlgerAlgeria Ligue 1
2025-12-18USM Alger2-2Ben AknounAlgeria Ligue 1

Other Matchday 6 fixtures

Before and after this match