Godoy Cruz vs Tristan Suarez: model vs market
| Source | Godoy Cruz | Draw | Tristan Suarez |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 45% | 35% | 21% |
| Market | 43% | 34% | 24% |
| Published | 43% | 34% | 23% |
| Edge | 0% | 0% | -1% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.09 vs 0.66.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Godoy Cruz vs Tristan Suarez odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Godoy Cruz, 14 snapshots since 2026-11-09.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Godoy Cruz | 2.03 | 2.12 | +0.10 |
| Draw | 2.83 | 2.71 | -0.12 |
| Tristan Suarez | 4.15 | 3.87 | -0.28 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Godoy Cruz and Tristan Suarez expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 1.75
- Attack rating (Godoy Cruz / Tristan Suarez)
- 2.05 / 0.86
- Defence rating (Godoy Cruz / Tristan Suarez)
- 1.05 / 0.46
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Godoy Cruz vs Tristan Suarez score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Godoy Cruz goals. Columns: Tristan Suarez goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Godoy Cruz vs Tristan Suarez goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 33%
- No goals (0–0)
- 19%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Godoy Cruz vs Tristan Suarez
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Godoy Cruz | 43% | 2.31 |
| Draw | 34% | 2.95 | |
| Tristan Suarez | 23% | 4.38 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 26% | 3.90 |
| Under 2.5 | 74% | 1.34 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 33% | 3.00 |
| No | 67% | 1.50 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Godoy Cruz or draw) | 77% | 1.30 |
| 12 (either side) | 66% | 1.51 | |
| X2 (draw or Tristan Suarez) | 57% | 1.76 | |
| Handicap -1 | Godoy Cruz win by 2+ | 19% | 5.23 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 25% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Godoy Cruz and Tristan Suarez recent form
Godoy Cruz
4W 2D 0L
Tristan Suarez
2W 4D 0L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Godoy Cruz at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 13-4-1
- Win rate
- 72%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 0.83
- Clean sheets
- 7 of 18
- They have won 19 of their 36 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 0.9 on the road.
- They have kept 12 clean sheets in 36 matches.
- They have failed to score in 10 of 36 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 6 penalties (67%).
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Tristan Suarez away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 7-8-3
- Win rate
- 39%
- Goals for / match
- 0.83
- Goals against / match
- 0.50
- Clean sheets
- 12 of 18
- They have won 16 of their 36 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They have kept 25 clean sheets in 36 matches.
- They have failed to score in 14 of 36 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 6 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 6 penalties (67%).
League matches this season before kick-off: Godoy Cruz at home only, Tristan Suarez away only.
Godoy Cruz vs Tristan Suarez head-to-head
Last 1 meetings: Godoy Cruz 1 · draws 0 · Tristan Suarez 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-05-13 | Godoy Cruz | 2-0 | Tristan Suarez | Copa Argentina |