Union St. Gilloise vs Genk preview
In the Jupiler Pro League fixture on 2026-11-08, Union St. Gilloise has a 60% chance to win against Genk, who has a 17% chance. The most likely scoreline is 2-0, with an expected goals figure of 2.15 for Union St. Gilloise and 0.87 for Genk.
While Union St. Gilloise's recent form shows 4 wins and 2 draws, Genk's form is mixed with 2 wins, 2 losses, and 1 draw. There is a 58% chance of Over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance for both teams to score. However, any unexpected improvement in Genk's performance could challenge these predictions.
Union St. Gilloise vs Genk: model vs market
| Source | Union St. Gilloise | Draw | Genk |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 63% | 22% | 15% |
| Market | 58% | 23% | 19% |
| Published | 59% | 23% | 18% |
| Edge | +1% | 0% | -1% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.04 vs 0.89.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.65, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -2.4% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Union St. Gilloise vs Genk odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Union St. Gilloise, 10 snapshots since 2026-11-02.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Union St. Gilloise | 1.60 | 1.60 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 4.15 | 4.05 | -0.10 |
| Genk | 4.96 | 4.80 | -0.16 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Union St. Gilloise and Genk expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.93
- Attack rating (Union St. Gilloise / Genk)
- 1.69 / 1.07
- Defence rating (Union St. Gilloise / Genk)
- 0.66 / 0.79
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Union St. Gilloise vs Genk score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Union St. Gilloise goals. Columns: Genk goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Union St. Gilloise vs Genk goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 52%
- No goals (0–0)
- 6%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Union St. Gilloise vs Genk
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Union St. Gilloise | 59% | 1.69 |
| Draw | 23% | 4.40 | |
| Genk | 18% | 5.52 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 56% | 1.78 |
| Under 2.5 | 44% | 2.28 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 52% | 1.91 |
| No | 48% | 2.10 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Union St. Gilloise or draw) | 82% | 1.22 |
| 12 (either side) | 77% | 1.29 | |
| X2 (draw or Genk) | 41% | 2.45 | |
| Handicap -1 | Union St. Gilloise win by 2+ | 40% | 2.51 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Union St. Gilloise and Genk recent form
Union St. Gilloise
5W 1D 0L
Genk
3W 1D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Union St. Gilloise at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-2-0
- Win rate
- 60%
- Goals for / match
- 2.80
- Goals against / match
- 0.60
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 5
- They have won 7 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 3.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 9 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
Genk away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-2-3
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 5
- They have won 4 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- They average 2.6 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 9 matches.
- 50% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Union St. Gilloise at home only, Genk away only.
Union St. Gilloise vs Genk head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Union St. Gilloise 2 · draws 0 · Genk 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-07 | Union St. Gilloise | 2-1 | Genk | Jupiler Pro League |
| 2025-09-21 | Genk | 1-2 | Union St. Gilloise | Jupiler Pro League |
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
- Standard Liege vs SK Beveren — team news & stats 2026-11-06
- KVC Westerlo vs Charleroi — team news & stats 2026-11-07
- OH Leuven v KV Mechelen — match page 2026-11-07
- Antwerp v Lommel United — match page 2026-11-07
- RAAL La Louvière vs Cercle Brugge 2026-11-07
- Club Brugge KV vs Anderlecht 2026-11-08
- Gent v Kortrijk — match page 2026-11-08
- St. Truiden vs Zulte Waregem 2026-11-08
Before and after this match
- Union St. Gilloise, previous: Celta Vigo vs Union St. Gilloise prediction
- Union St. Gilloise, next: Union St. Gilloise v Lech Poznan analysis
- Genk, previous: KV Mechelen – Genk, 2026-10-31