RAAL La Louvière vs Cercle Brugge preview
In the Jupiler Pro League fixture between RAAL La Louvière and Cercle Brugge, the 1X2 probabilities suggest a strong likelihood for RAAL La Louvière at 57%, with a projected scoreline of 2-1 at 8%. The model also indicates a high chance of Over 2.5 goals at 78% and both teams to score at 74%.
However, RAAL La Louvière's recent form shows inconsistency with 2 wins and 4 losses in their last 6 matches. Cercle Brugge has struggled as well, with only 1 win in their last 6 games. If either team fails to perform, it could impact the expected goals of 2.54 for RAAL La Louvière and 1.61 for Cercle Brugge.
RAAL La Louvière vs Cercle Brugge: model vs market
| Source | RAAL La Louvière | Draw | Cercle Brugge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 52% | 20% | 28% |
| Market | 35% | 28% | 37% |
| Published | 39% | 26% | 35% |
| Edge | +4% | -2% | -2% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.54 vs 1.89.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
- The market prices RAAL La Louvière below our published probability: +4.2 percentage points of edge.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.73, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +7.3% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
RAAL La Louvière vs Cercle Brugge odds movement
Median bookmaker price on RAAL La Louvière, 10 snapshots since 2026-11-02.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| RAAL La Louvière | 2.62 | 2.63 | +0.01 |
| Draw | 3.38 | 3.30 | -0.08 |
| Cercle Brugge | 2.50 | 2.51 | +0.01 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
RAAL La Louvière and Cercle Brugge expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 4.44
- Attack rating (RAAL La Louvière / Cercle Brugge)
- 1.17 / 1.07
- Defence rating (RAAL La Louvière / Cercle Brugge)
- 1.39 / 1.41
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
RAAL La Louvière vs Cercle Brugge score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: RAAL La Louvière goals. Columns: Cercle Brugge goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
RAAL La Louvière vs Cercle Brugge goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 79%
- No goals (0–0)
- 2%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for RAAL La Louvière vs Cercle Brugge
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | RAAL La Louvière | 39% | 2.54 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.84 | |
| Cercle Brugge | 35% | 2.88 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 82% | 1.22 |
| Under 2.5 | 18% | 5.53 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 79% | 1.27 |
| No | 21% | 4.72 | |
| Double chance | 1X (RAAL La Louvière or draw) | 65% | 1.53 |
| 12 (either side) | 74% | 1.35 | |
| X2 (draw or Cercle Brugge) | 61% | 1.65 | |
| Handicap -1 | RAAL La Louvière win by 2+ | 33% | 3.00 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
RAAL La Louvière and Cercle Brugge recent form
RAAL La Louvière
3W 0D 3L
Cercle Brugge
2W 1D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
RAAL La Louvière at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-2
- Win rate
- 40%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.60
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 5
- They have won 2 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 0.6 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 10 matches.
Cercle Brugge away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-2-3
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 1.40
- Goals against / match
- 2.40
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 5
- They have won 1 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 10 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 46% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: RAAL La Louvière at home only, Cercle Brugge away only.
RAAL La Louvière vs Cercle Brugge head-to-head
Last 4 meetings: RAAL La Louvière 3 · draws 0 · Cercle Brugge 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-09 | RAAL La Louvière | 4-1 | Cercle Brugge | Jupiler Pro League |
| 2026-04-11 | Cercle Brugge | 3-0 | RAAL La Louvière | Jupiler Pro League |
| 2026-03-15 | Cercle Brugge | 1-3 | RAAL La Louvière | Jupiler Pro League |
| 2025-11-02 | RAAL La Louvière | 2-1 | Cercle Brugge | Jupiler Pro League |
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
- Standard Liege vs SK Beveren — team news & stats 2026-11-06
- KVC Westerlo vs Charleroi — team news & stats 2026-11-07
- OH Leuven v KV Mechelen — match page 2026-11-07
- Antwerp v Lommel United — match page 2026-11-07
- Club Brugge KV vs Anderlecht 2026-11-08
- Gent v Kortrijk — match page 2026-11-08
- Union St. Gilloise vs Genk — team news & stats 2026-11-08
- St. Truiden vs Zulte Waregem 2026-11-08
Before and after this match
- RAAL La Louvière, previous: Charleroi v RAAL La Louvière analysis
- Cercle Brugge, previous: Cercle Brugge vs Antwerp prediction