Sao Paulo vs Santos: model vs market
| Source | Sao Paulo | Draw | Santos |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 39% | 32% | 29% |
| Market | 47% | 28% | 24% |
| Published | 45% | 29% | 25% |
| Edge | -8% | +4% | +4% |
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Sao Paulo vs Santos odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Sao Paulo, 14 snapshots since 2026-09-26.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sao Paulo | 2.00 | 2.00 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 3.40 | 3.32 | -0.08 |
| Santos | 3.73 | 3.90 | +0.17 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Sao Paulo and Santos expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.13
- Attack rating (Sao Paulo / Santos)
- 0.84 / 1.13
- Defence rating (Sao Paulo / Santos)
- 0.80 / 0.92
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Sao Paulo vs Santos score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Sao Paulo goals. Columns: Santos goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Sao Paulo vs Santos goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 44%
- No goals (0–0)
- 13%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Sao Paulo vs Santos
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Sao Paulo | 45% | 2.21 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.40 | |
| Santos | 25% | 3.95 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 36% | 2.79 |
| Under 2.5 | 64% | 1.56 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 44% | 2.28 |
| No | 56% | 1.78 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Sao Paulo or draw) | 75% | 1.34 |
| 12 (either side) | 71% | 1.42 | |
| X2 (draw or Santos) | 55% | 1.83 | |
| Handicap -1 | Sao Paulo win by 2+ | 17% | 5.77 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Sao Paulo and Santos recent form
Sao Paulo
3W 1D 2L
Santos
4W 1D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Sao Paulo at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 8-3-2
- Win rate
- 62%
- Goals for / match
- 1.62
- Goals against / match
- 0.77
- Clean sheets
- 5 of 13
- They have won 10 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 1.6 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 27 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 27 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 5 penalties (100%).
- 45% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Santos away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-4-5
- Win rate
- 31%
- Goals for / match
- 1.62
- Goals against / match
- 1.69
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 13
- They have won 10 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 27 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 27 matches.
- They have converted 6 of 6 penalties (100%).
- 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Sao Paulo at home only, Santos away only.
Injuries & availability
Sao Paulo
-
Buta
inactive
-
D. Bobadilla
inactive
-
D. Duarte
injury
-
Djhordney
international duty
-
G. Santana
inactive
-
Jonathan Calleri
yellow cards
-
Lucas Moura
achilles tendon injury
-
Lucca Marques
jaw injury
-
N. Bosshardt
inactive
-
P. dos Santos
international duty
Santos
-
Coutinho
inactive
-
Gabriel Bontempo
yellow cards
-
Gabriel Brazao
inactive
-
Luan Peres
yellow cards
-
Neymar
thigh injury
-
Vinicius Lira
knee injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.
Sao Paulo vs Santos head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Sao Paulo 4 · draws 2 · Santos 4.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-04 | Santos | 1-1 | Sao Paulo | Brazil Serie A |
| 2026-01-31 | Sao Paulo | 2-0 | Santos | Paulista - A1 |
| 2025-09-21 | Santos | 1-0 | Sao Paulo | Brazil Serie A |
| 2025-04-20 | Sao Paulo | 2-1 | Santos | Brazil Serie A |
| 2025-02-01 | Santos | 3-1 | Sao Paulo | Paulista - A1 |
| 2024-02-14 | Sao Paulo | 0-1 | Santos | Paulista - A1 |
| 2023-11-12 | Santos | 0-0 | Sao Paulo | Serie A |
| 2023-07-16 | Sao Paulo | 4-1 | Santos | Serie A |
| 2023-02-12 | Sao Paulo | 3-1 | Santos | Paulista - A1 |
| 2022-08-21 | Santos | 1-0 | Sao Paulo | Serie A |