Brazil Serie B · Matchday 30

Botafogo SP vs Ponte Preta

· Estadio Santa Cruz, Ribeirao Preto· Referee Edina Alves Batista

Full time2 – 0

Alin prediction was Botafogo SP to win

Cblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 2 – 0

14% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Botafogo SPDrawPonte Preta

Botafogo SP vs Ponte Preta: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceBotafogo SPDrawPonte Preta
Model73%19%9%
Market74%17%9%
Published74%17%9%
Edge-2%+2%0%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.25 vs 0.67.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Botafogo SP vs Ponte Preta odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Botafogo SP, 16 snapshots since 2026-09-22.

Opened 1.22Now 1.26 +0.04
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Botafogo SP1.221.26+0.04
Draw5.805.50-0.30
Ponte Preta11.5011.00-0.50

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Botafogo SP and Ponte Preta expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

2.25Botafogo SP
0.67Ponte Preta
Total expected goals
2.92
Attack rating (Botafogo SP / Ponte Preta)
0.93 / 0.51
Defence rating (Botafogo SP / Ponte Preta)
1.36 / 1.84

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Botafogo SP vs Ponte Preta score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 6.2% 2.8% 1.2% 0.3% 0.1% 1 11.3% 8.9% 2.7% 0.6% 0.1% 2 13.7% 9.1% 3.0% 0.7% 0.1% 3 10.3% 6.9% 2.3% 0.5% 0.1% 4+ 9.8% 6.6% 2.2% 0.5% 0.1%

Rows: Botafogo SP goals. Columns: Ponte Preta goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Botafogo SP vs Ponte Preta goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 94%
Over 1.5 80%
Over 2.5 56%
Over 3.5 34%
Both teams to score
44%
No goals (0–0)
6%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Botafogo SP vs Ponte Preta

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Botafogo SP74%1.35
Draw17%5.73
Ponte Preta9%11.69
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.556%1.79
Under 2.544%2.27
Both teams to scoreYes44%2.25
No56%1.80
Double chance1X (Botafogo SP or draw)91%1.09
12 (either side)83%1.21
X2 (draw or Ponte Preta)26%3.84
Handicap -1Botafogo SP win by 2+50%2.02
Push (exactly one goal)23%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Botafogo SP and Ponte Preta recent form

Botafogo SP 0W 1D 5L
Ponte Preta 1W 0D 5L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Botafogo SP at home

Record (W-D-L)
5-3-6
Win rate
36%
Goals for / match
1.64
Goals against / match
1.50
Clean sheets
1 of 14
  • They have won 8 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
  • They average 1.6 goals per game at home against 0.6 on the road.
  • They have kept 5 clean sheets in 29 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 10 of 29 matches.
  • They have converted 2 of 4 penalties (50%).
  • 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Ponte Preta away

Record (W-D-L)
1-0-13
Win rate
7%
Goals for / match
0.50
Goals against / match
2.79
Clean sheets
0 of 14
  • They have won 3 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 0.6 goals per match.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 29 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 15 of 29 matches.
  • They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).

League matches this season before kick-off: Botafogo SP at home only, Ponte Preta away only.

Botafogo SP vs Ponte Preta head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Botafogo SP 2 · draws 4 · Ponte Preta 4.

Botafogo SPDrawsPonte Preta
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-06-01Ponte Preta0-0Botafogo SPBrazil Serie B
2025-02-15Ponte Preta0-0Botafogo SPPaulista - A1
2024-10-05Ponte Preta1-0Botafogo SPSerie B
2024-06-20Botafogo SP2-0Ponte PretaSerie B
2024-02-07Botafogo SP0-3Ponte PretaPaulista - A1
2023-08-12Botafogo SP0-0Ponte PretaSerie B
2023-05-02Ponte Preta2-0Botafogo SPSerie B
2022-02-16Ponte Preta0-1Botafogo SPPaulista - A1
2021-05-14Ponte Preta0-0Botafogo SPPaulista - A1
2021-03-13Botafogo SP0-1Ponte PretaPaulista - A1