Juventude vs São Bernardo Prediction & Betting Tips 11/10/2026

Juventude vs São Bernardo: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Juventude	Draw	São Bernardo
Model	43%	32%	25%
Market	—	—	—
Published	43%	32%	25%
Edge	—	—	—

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.22 vs 0.86.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Juventude and São Bernardo expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.22Juventude

0.86São Bernardo

Total expected goals: 2.08
Attack rating (Juventude / São Bernardo): 1.05 / 1.21
Defence rating (Juventude / São Bernardo): 0.75 / 0.88

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Juventude vs São Bernardo score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 13.8% 9.5% 4.6% 1.3% 0.3% 1 13.9% 14.4% 5.6% 1.6% 0.4% 2 9.3% 8.0% 3.4% 1.0% 0.3% 3 3.8% 3.2% 1.4% 0.4% 0.1% 4+ 1.5% 1.3% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0%

Rows: Juventude goals. Columns: São Bernardo goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Juventude vs São Bernardo goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 86%

Over 1.5 63%

Over 2.5 34%

Over 3.5 16%

Both teams to score: 42%
No goals (0–0): 14%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Juventude vs São Bernardo

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Juventude	43%	2.33
	Draw	32%	3.11
	São Bernardo	25%	4.02
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	34%	2.91
	Under 2.5	66%	1.52
Both teams to score	Yes	42%	2.39
	No	58%	1.72
Double chance	1X (Juventude or draw)	75%	1.33
	12 (either side)	68%	1.47
	X2 (draw or São Bernardo)	57%	1.75
Handicap -1	Juventude win by 2+	20%	5.10
	Push (exactly one goal)	23%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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Juventude and São Bernardo recent form

Juventude 3W 1D 2L

São Bernardo 4W 1D 1L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Juventude at home

Record (W-D-L): 10-4-2
Win rate: 62%
Goals for / match: 1.38
Goals against / match: 0.38
Clean sheets: 12 of 16

They have won 16 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
They average 1.4 goals per game at home against 0.9 on the road.
They have kept 21 clean sheets in 31 matches.
They have failed to score in 9 of 31 matches.
Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

São Bernardo away

Record (W-D-L): 8-3-4
Win rate: 53%
Goals for / match: 1.60
Goals against / match: 0.93
Clean sheets: 5 of 15

They have won 12 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
They have kept 9 clean sheets in 31 matches.
They have failed to score in 6 of 31 matches.
Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.

League matches this season before kick-off: Juventude at home only, São Bernardo away only.

Juventude vs São Bernardo head-to-head

Last 1 meetings: Juventude 1 · draws 0 · São Bernardo 0.

100% 0% 0%

JuventudeDrawsSão Bernardo

Previous meetings
Date	Home	Score	Away	Competition
2026-06-21	São Bernardo	0-1	Juventude	Brazil Serie B

Prediction snapshot Juventude to win Predicted score 1 – 0 C Bet on Juventude