ASEC Mimosas vs Maghreb Fès Prediction & Betting Tips 25/10/2026

ASEC Mimosas vs Maghreb Fès preview

ASEC Mimosas face Maghreb Fès with a 40% chance of winning compared to 25% for Maghreb Fès. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, which occurs 15% of the time in our model. ASEC Mimosas have an expected goals figure of 1.09, while Maghreb Fès sits at 0.80.

However, there is a 29% chance of Over 2.5 goals and a 38% chance for both teams to score. ASEC Mimosas' recent form shows a mix of results with W-D-W-L, while Maghreb Fès has been more consistent with L-D-W-W-D-W. The confidence grade for this match is C, indicating some uncertainty in the predictions.

ASEC Mimosas vs Maghreb Fès: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	ASEC Mimosas	Draw	Maghreb Fès
Model	40%	34%	26%
Market	—	—	—
Published	40%	34%	26%
Edge	—	—	—

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

ASEC Mimosas and Maghreb Fès expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.08ASEC Mimosas

0.81Maghreb Fès

Total expected goals: 1.89
Attack rating (ASEC Mimosas / Maghreb Fès): 1.03 / 1.23
Defence rating (ASEC Mimosas / Maghreb Fès): 0.89 / 0.82

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

ASEC Mimosas vs Maghreb Fès score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 16.4% 10.9% 4.9% 1.3% 0.3% 1 15.0% 14.5% 5.3% 1.4% 0.3% 2 8.9% 7.2% 2.9% 0.8% 0.2% 3 3.2% 2.6% 1.0% 0.3% 0.1% 4+ 1.1% 0.9% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%

Rows: ASEC Mimosas goals. Columns: Maghreb Fès goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

ASEC Mimosas vs Maghreb Fès goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 84%

Over 1.5 58%

Over 2.5 29%

Over 3.5 12%

Both teams to score: 38%
No goals (0–0): 16%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for ASEC Mimosas vs Maghreb Fès

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	ASEC Mimosas	40%	2.48
	Draw	34%	2.93
	Maghreb Fès	26%	3.91
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	29%	3.40
	Under 2.5	71%	1.42
Both teams to score	Yes	38%	2.63
	No	62%	1.61
Double chance	1X (ASEC Mimosas or draw)	74%	1.34
	12 (either side)	66%	1.52
	X2 (draw or Maghreb Fès)	60%	1.68
Handicap -1	ASEC Mimosas win by 2+	17%	5.88
	Push (exactly one goal)	23%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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