ES Tunis vs Asswehly Prediction & Betting Tips 24/10/2026

ES Tunis vs Asswehly preview

In the CAF Champions League fixture between ES Tunis and Asswehly, the 1X2 probabilities show ES Tunis at 40%, with a most likely scoreline of 1-0 at 13%. The expected goals for ES Tunis is 1.18, while Asswehly sits at 0.95.

However, the match could see different outcomes if Asswehly continues their recent form, having won their last 2 matches. The model indicates a 36% chance for Over 2.5 goals and a 44% chance for both teams to score, suggesting potential for a more open game than the expected scoreline indicates.

ES Tunis vs Asswehly: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	ES Tunis	Draw	Asswehly
Model	40%	32%	28%
Market	—	—	—
Published	40%	32%	28%
Edge	—	—	—

Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

ES Tunis and Asswehly expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.18ES Tunis

0.95Asswehly

Total expected goals: 2.13
Attack rating (ES Tunis / Asswehly): 1.29 / 1.30
Defence rating (ES Tunis / Asswehly): 1.00 / 0.71

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

ES Tunis vs Asswehly score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 13.3% 10.0% 5.4% 1.7% 0.5% 1 12.7% 14.7% 6.3% 2.0% 0.6% 2 8.2% 7.8% 3.7% 1.2% 0.3% 3 3.2% 3.1% 1.5% 0.5% 0.1% 4+ 1.2% 1.2% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1%

Rows: ES Tunis goals. Columns: Asswehly goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

ES Tunis vs Asswehly goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 87%

Over 1.5 64%

Over 2.5 36%

Over 3.5 17%

Both teams to score: 44%
No goals (0–0): 13%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for ES Tunis vs Asswehly

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	ES Tunis	40%	2.52
	Draw	32%	3.11
	Asswehly	28%	3.55
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	36%	2.80
	Under 2.5	64%	1.56
Both teams to score	Yes	44%	2.29
	No	56%	1.78
Double chance	1X (ES Tunis or draw)	72%	1.39
	12 (either side)	68%	1.47
	X2 (draw or Asswehly)	60%	1.66
Handicap -1	ES Tunis win by 2+	18%	5.70
	Push (exactly one goal)	22%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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