CS Sfaxien vs ES Tunis Prediction & Betting Tips 29/10/2026

CS Sfaxien vs ES Tunis preview

In the upcoming match between CS Sfaxien and ES Tunis, the 1X2 probabilities suggest a strong likelihood for CS Sfaxien at 58%, while ES Tunis sits at 15%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, which has a 14% chance according to our model. CS Sfaxien's expected goals are 1.65, significantly higher than ES Tunis's 0.73.

However, the prediction could be challenged if ES Tunis continues their recent form, which includes 5 wins in their last 6 matches. Both teams to score stands at 43%, and Over 2.5 goals is at 42%, indicating potential for more goals than expected. The confidence grade for this match is C, suggesting some uncertainty in the outcome.

CS Sfaxien vs ES Tunis: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	CS Sfaxien	Draw	ES Tunis
Model	58%	27%	15%
Market	—	—	—
Published	58%	27%	15%
Edge	—	—	—

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.65 vs 0.73.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

CS Sfaxien and ES Tunis expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.65CS Sfaxien

0.73ES Tunis

Total expected goals: 2.38
Attack rating (CS Sfaxien / ES Tunis): 1.42 / 1.44
Defence rating (CS Sfaxien / ES Tunis): 0.72 / 1.11

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

CS Sfaxien vs ES Tunis score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 10.4% 5.7% 2.5% 0.6% 0.1% 1 14.1% 12.3% 4.1% 1.0% 0.2% 2 12.5% 9.2% 3.4% 0.8% 0.2% 3 6.9% 5.0% 1.8% 0.5% 0.1% 4+ 4.1% 3.0% 1.1% 0.3% 0.1%

Rows: CS Sfaxien goals. Columns: ES Tunis goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

CS Sfaxien vs ES Tunis goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 90%

Over 1.5 70%

Over 2.5 42%

Over 3.5 22%

Both teams to score: 43%
No goals (0–0): 10%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for CS Sfaxien vs ES Tunis

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	CS Sfaxien	58%	1.72
	Draw	27%	3.77
	ES Tunis	15%	6.53
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	42%	2.36
	Under 2.5	58%	1.74
Both teams to score	Yes	43%	2.32
	No	57%	1.76
Double chance	1X (CS Sfaxien or draw)	85%	1.18
	12 (either side)	73%	1.36
	X2 (draw or ES Tunis)	42%	2.39
Handicap -1	CS Sfaxien win by 2+	33%	3.05
	Push (exactly one goal)	25%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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